卷 15, 编号 3 (2025)
- 年: 2025
- ##issue.datePublished##: 25.11.2025
- 文章: 14
- URL: https://ogarev-online.ru/2328-1391/issue/view/24252
Articles
Methods for optimizing urban transport network performance
摘要
Background. In the context of accelerated urbanization, the optimization of logistics infrastructure has become a critical component in ensuring the sustainable and efficient functioning of urban mobility. The increasing density of traffic flows, growing environmental safety requirements, and limited urban space necessitate the implementation of integrated solutions based on digital technologies and the systemic integration of various modes of transport.
Purpose. To substantiate effective approaches for optimizing urban transport networks through the use of digital technologies, intelligent transport systems, and multimodal strategies aimed at increasing throughput, reducing delays, and lowering environmental impact.
Materials and methods. The methodological framework is based on systems analysis principles, comparative assessment of implemented transport practices, and traffic flow simulation using the SUMO software package, which allows for evaluating the effectiveness of different urban mobility management scenarios. The modeling was conducted for a representative urban agglomeration, taking into account real traffic parameters.
Results. The application of adaptive traffic signal control reduced average intersection delays by up to 45% and CO2 emissions by up to 24% compared to the baseline scenario. Furthermore, the analysis of modern technological and organizational solutions confirmed the high effectiveness of integrating intelligent transport systems, big data platforms, and multimodal strategies in ensuring the sustainable performance of urban transport networks.
7-26
Improving algorithms for predicting electric vehicle energy consumption to accurately estimate power reserve based on real terrain parameters and current meteorological factors
摘要
Background. Accurate forecasting of the energy consumption of electric vehicles is a critically important task for improving the efficiency of vehicle operation and reducing drivers’ anxiety about power reserve. Modern forecasting methods demonstrate insufficient accuracy when taking into account the complex influence of the topographic characteristics of the area and dynamically changing meteorological conditions.
Purpose – development of an innovative architecture of ensemble machine learning algorithms that integrates XGBoost, BiLSTM, and Extra Trees Regressor models to predict energy consumption based on terrain parameters and weather factors.
Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the research is based on the complex application of ensemble machine learning algorithms adapted to solve the problems of multifactorial forecasting of electric vehicle energy consumption in conditions of complex spatial and temporal variability of external factors. The choice of methods is due to the need to process heterogeneous high-dimensional data and ensure the robustness of forecasts in the presence of noise and omissions in the source data. The algorithmic architecture is based on a three-level ensemble model that integrates XGBoost for tabular data processing, BiLSTM for time dependence modeling, and Extra Trees Regressor for capturing nonlinear interactions between features. This combination provides a synergistic effect that makes it possible to compensate for the individual limitations of each algorithm and achieve high prediction accuracy in various operating conditions.
Results. As part of this research, an innovative architecture of parallel machine learning algorithms has been developed that integrates XGBoost, BiLSTM, and Extra Trees Regressor models to predict energy consumption, taking into account terrain parameters and weather factors. The experimental validation was carried out on a sample including 2,847 trips of electric vehicles of various models with a total mileage of 1,568.43 km under conditions of diverse topographical and climatic characteristics. The proposed hybrid model achieves an average absolute error of 4.2 kWh/100 km and a termination coefficient of R2 = 0.971, which exceeds the basic algorithms by 23.8%. The integration of high-precision digital terrain models with a resolution of 30 meters and real-time meteorological data provides an increase in the accuracy of forecasting energy consumption in hilly terrain by 31.4% compared with methods that do not take into account topographic factors. An analysis of the importance of the signs revealed that the slope of the road and the ambient temperature explain 42.6% and 18.3% of the variance in energy consumption, respectively. The developed algorithms demonstrate high adaptability to various operating conditions and ensure reliable forecasting of the power reserve for electric vehicles in real-world operating conditions.
27-51
Genesis of the inefficiency problem in transport and logistics production in the Russian Federation
摘要
Background. The article analyzes the inefficiency of transport and logistics production in Russia, particularly in the road freight sector. It demonstrates that the current structure, driven by the interests of individual companies, fails to ensure long-term stability. The significant growth in freight turnover (126.5% since 2001) alongside minimal increases in shipping volumes (5.9%) indicates extensive development and inefficient resource utilization.
Purpose. To identify the causes of inefficiency in Russia’s road freight system and propose restructuring measures based on statistical data and an analysis of the industry’s organizational framework.
Materials and methods. The study utilizes data from Rosstat, the Russian Ministry of Transport, and analytical centers (2001–2023) on freight turnover, shipping volumes, and the transport sector’s share of GDP. A comparative analysis of indicator trends revealed a disparity between GDP growth (20-fold) and freight volume growth (10.4%). The structure of the road freight system was examined, including the distribution of trucks and transport work between sole proprietors (36.6%) and legal entities (63.4%). Methods included statistical analysis, systems theory, and expert assessments (e.g., an Ernst & Young survey).
Results. The study found that Russia’s road freight system is highly fragmented, dominated by sole proprietors (56% of vehicles), and suffers from low market transparency. A modified management model was proposed, emphasizing direct coordination between the macro level (state regulation) and micro level (enterprises) to enhance industry resilience.
52-71
Automated monitoring of parking infrastructure using machine learning and computer vision methods
摘要
Background. The article examines the current problem of parking space shortage in modern urban conditions. The authors have developed an innovative solution based on an automated monitoring system using computer vision and deep learning methods. A comprehensive analysis of existing global analogues of parking management systems is carried out, highlighting their competitive advantages and significant limitations. As a methodological basis, a detailed process model presented in BPMN 2.0 notation is proposed, which includes a description of the solution architecture, video data processing algorithms and a neural network training methodology. Particular attention is paid to the development of a specialized reporting template that provides a visual representation of statistical data on the occupancy of parking spaces in real time.
Purpose. The purpose is to improve the efficiency of parking infrastructure management through the implementation of intelligent algorithms for automatic recognition.
Materials and methods. The study employed a comprehensive scientific approach incorporating machine learning techniques, systems theory, systems analysis and synthesis, along with analytical and statistical methods.
Results. The work uses a set of modern methods, including machine learning technologies (with an emphasis on the use of the YOLOv8m model), principles of system analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of statistical data processing.
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A set-theoretic model of a cross-border system
摘要
Background. The stability of international trade is ensured by a well-developed system of cross-border crossings, formed at the level of the country, region and the border area under consideration. A cross-border system is considered as an interconnected set of objects, factors, resources, indicators, processes, and technological connections. Set-theoretic modeling makes it possible to describe the functioning of cross-border crossings of various modes of transport and structurally present the constituent elements of the model. To ensure the passage of transport and cargo flows, it is necessary to have an appropriate terminal and logistics infrastructure. The terminal and logistics facilities are considered in the work as providing and servicing the infrastructure of a cross-border crossing. The creation and development of a cross-border terminal and logistics infrastructure should be carried out using the proposed index of sufficiency of terminal and logistics support for a cross-border crossing. A comprehensive criterion has also been formulated, according to which the terminal and logistics infrastructure of a cross-border crossing should be formed.
The purpose of the study is to develop a set-theoretic model of cross-border transition and a comprehensive criterion for the formation of a cross-border terminal and logistics infrastructure.
Methodology. The work was carried out using theoretical research methods: analysis, comparison, modeling and formalization.
Results. A set-theoretic model of a system of cross-border crossings at the macro, meso, and micro levels has been developed and described. The sufficiency index of terminal and logistics support for a cross-border crossing and a comprehensive criterion for the formation of a terminal and logistics infrastructure for a cross-border crossing are formulated.
Practical implications. The formed set-theoretic model of the system of cross-border crossings is part of the research work aimed at improving the efficiency of the transport system of the Far East.
92-107
Calculation of reliability indicators of an information system under conditions of interval uncertainty
摘要
Background. The presented study covers key issues related to the assessment of the values of the parameters of functional reliability of an information system under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information.
The aim of the study is to develop effective methods for assessing the values of the parameters of functional reliability of an information system under conditions of interval uncertainty, ensuring its stable operation.
Materials and methods. The calculation of the values of the reliability parameters of the information system is carried out on the basis of interval analysis methods and basic data processing tools in the case of the type of uncertainty under consideration.
Scientific novelty. In the conducted study, the main approaches to calculating the parameters of functional reliability of an information system are considered in the context of uncertainty described on the basis of interval data, which allows for more accurate assessments and taking into account errors that occur in practice.
Results. The approach proposed in the article has great theoretical and practical significance and serves as a basic tool for calculating the parameters of functional reliability of an information system under conditions of interval uncertainty, allowing one to take into account error factors and determine the permissible intervals of deviation of parameters from the calculated nominal values.
108-124
Digital twins and the Harrington scale in railway automation and telemechanics reliability management
摘要
Background. Modern railway automation and telemechanics systems are complex technical complexes that require the introduction of modern monitoring and control methods. The integration of digital twin technologies with the readiness coefficient assessment system using the Harrington scale is due to the need to move from reactive maintenance to predictive reliability management, which is an urgent scientific and technical task.
Purpose. Development of an integrated approach to assessing and managing the reliability of railway automation technical support based on the integration of digital twin technologies and the Harrington scale for the readiness coefficient.
Materials and methods. Authors use an integrated approach that includes: mathematical modeling of digital twins of harvester devices; statistical analysis of reliability indicators (coefficient of readiness, recovery time); application of the Harrington scale for a unified assessment of technical condition; analysis of practical data on the operation of switches, rail circuits and traffic lights.
Results. An integrated reliability assessment system has been developed, allowing: increase the equipment availability factor by 0.17-0.25%; reduce operating costs by 25-30%; reduce the number of failures by 40-60%; visualize the technical condition through a unified evaluation scale. The economic efficiency of implementing the system with an annual economic effect of up to 566 thousand rubles per switch has been proven. The results of the study can be applied to the creation of predictive maintenance systems for railway automation and telemechanics devices.
125-140
Research methods for digitalization of transport systems using artificial intelligence
摘要
Background. There is a need to move from isolated “point” solutions to comprehensive digitalization of transport systems that integrates infrastructure-level pavement monitoring, operational traffic management, and strategic planning. To this end, it is reasonable to combine machine learning (for forecasting), genetic algorithms (for optimization), and multi-agent simulation (for robustness checking).
Purpose. To assess the effect of such integration using a set of metrics (delays, costs, risk, profit, service) and an integral objective function F.
Materials and methods. Infrastructure level: computer vision (YOLO), mAP ≈ 0.84; defect-generation forecasting (XGBoost), error ≤ 12%. Operational level: short-term traffic-intensity forecasts (LSTM/XGBoost, RMSE 8–10%) and traffic-signal phase optimization with a genetic algorithm. Strategic level: demand and tariff forecasting, optimization scenarios. The robustness of solutions was verified via multi-agent simulation; comparisons were made against baseline (“as-is”) scenarios.
Results. Total delays were reduced by 37%, overall logistics costs by 12%, and profitability increased by 10–11%; with a 20% demand increase, >90% of deliveries were completed within SLA. The integral function F improved by 22–24%. The plans demonstrated robustness and sensitivity to criterion weights.
141-166
Analysis of the quality of transport and logistics services in modern conditions
摘要
Background. The article is a study of the quality of transport and logistics services in modern conditions. It analyzes the transport industry of the Russian Federation and assesses its competitive advantages in four main areas: productive factors, related and supporting industries, domestic demand parameters, and the structure and strategies of industry companies and intra-industry competition. Using official statistical data, the article describes and systematizes the characteristics of the stages of economic growth in the transport sector, analyzes the current situation in these areas, and identifies the catalysts for transition from one stage to another. The article also provides a description of the implementation of international transport corridor projects involving Russia as a sign of transition to the innovation stage. The purpose is to apply the product life cycle period to the railway transport service during freight transportation with the subsequent search for opportunities to improve the quality of services provided. The competitive advantages of the domestic transport industry, which are typical for the second and third stages of economic growth, are analyzed, and the resources, technological potential, and quality of transport and logistics services for rail transport are evaluated. A comprehensive indicator of the quality of transport and logistics services is derived, and the conditions for its calculation are determined. Weight coefficients are determined for the implementation of the quality of resources, technology, and the final transport and logistics service.
Purpose. Increasing competitive advantages using a comprehensive indicator of the quality of transport and logistics services.
Materials and methods. The article used an analysis of the current state of transport and logistics services, formulated the signs of transition to the innovation stage, and derived a formula for a comprehensive indicator of the quality of transport and logistics services.
Results. The position of the transport sector is defined as a transition from investment-based competition to innovation-based competition. It is substantiated that the quality of transport and logistics services should be based on three components: the quality of resources, the quality of technologies, and the quality of the final transport and logistics service. The implementation of competitive advantages in transport and logistics services can be achieved by increasing the value of the comprehensive quality indicator, subject to certain conditions.
Practical implications. The obtained results can be applied in the railway transportation system, as well as in the work of operator and transport and logistics companies.
167-181
Assessment of the expediency of organizing dedicated lanes for public urban passenger transport on a section of the road network
摘要
Background. In this article, the authors present the results of a review of scientific work in the field of improving the efficiency of the urban road network based on the implementation of measures to organize the priority movement of public urban passenger transport. The absence of a well-formed and structured scientific and regulatory framework in the field of determining the conditions for the expedient organization of dedicated lanes for public urban passenger transport was noted.
As one of the solutions to this problem, a criterion has been proposed for assessing the feasibility of organizing dedicated lanes, and a methodology has been developed for calculating this criterion, which is determined taking into account the redistribution of traffic flows between adjacent sections of the urban road network.
Purpose. Improving the efficiency of using the urban road network based on ensuring priority traffic conditions for public urban passenger transport.
Materials and methods. The paper implements methods of mathematical and statistical analysis, methods of planning a field experiment, and probability theory. Statistical analysis was used in this work. The article is based on a set of sources, including: documentation of a regulatory nature and scientific work in the field of traffic management and organization of urban passenger transportation.
Results. The article proposes a criterion for assessing the feasibility of organizing a dedicated lane on a section of the urban road network, and develops a methodology for calculating the values of the proposed indicator, taking into account the intensity of vehicle traffic, the structure of traffic flows, and the specifics of traffic management. Based on the proposed calculation formulas, a mathematical model has been developed that makes it possible to identify a parametric area characterizing the conditions determining the expediency of organizing a dedicated lane for public urban passenger transport.
Scope of application of the results: scientific and research activities in the field of urban passenger transportation and traffic management; solving applied problems related to the development of traffic management schemes and the organization of urban passenger transport.
182-202
Analytical management models in the transport complex resource allocation system
摘要
Background. The management of resource allocation in a transport complex is significantly complicated by the presence of uncertain informational states, a characteristic feature of such complex, multi-level systems. Traditional management models often prove inadequate as they fail to fully account for this stochastic uncertainty and the ergatic nature of the system, which involves interaction between heterogeneous technical elements and human collectives with potentially conflicting goals. This necessitates the development of specialized analytical models based on robust mathematical apparatuses, such as entropy theory, to formalize decision-making processes and increase the efficiency of resource distribution under conditions of incomplete information.
Purpose. To develop analytical models for managing the resource allocation system in a transport complex, based on the principles of entropy measurement and the theory of decision-making under uncertainty, aimed at formalizing the procedures for evaluating efficiency and selecting optimal solutions.
Materials and methods. The study employs the theoretical foundations of K. Shannon’s entropy to quantify uncertainty within the system. The core methodological tool is the model for researching second-order uncertainty functions, designed for systems with discrete states, such as resource allocation systems. To form a system of probability distributions for informational states, a model based on Fishburn’s estimates is used. The mathematical apparatus includes constructing matrices of evaluation functionals (2) for various decision options and criteria. The analysis of solution efficiency is conducted using a graphical model for a set of mutually exclusive options, particularly for, and for a priori probability distributions.
Results. A graphical model for determining efficiency within the system was developed and presented, illustrating the solution space for a given preference of a priori probabilities. The application of the model based on Fishburn’s estimates was shown to solve the primary task of reducing uncertainty. However, it was established that this model alone does not identify the probability characteristics corresponding to the maximum of the evaluation functional across the entire set of external environment states. To address this, the model was supplemented with a targeted condition (4). Furthermore, the fundamental differences between the method of Fishburn’s estimates and alternative methods – the zoning method by the principle of dominance of probabilities of possible states of the external environment (DPPSE) and the zoning method by the principle of maintaining the hierarchical ratio of probabilities of possible states of the external environment (MHRPSE) – were demonstrated. A comparative analysis of these methods was conducted using a hypothetical example.
203-221
Design concept for a multi-level hierarchical resource management structure in passenger transportation systems
摘要
Background. The passenger transport complex is a complex ergatic system that integrates heterogeneous technological and infrastructural elements and human teams with often contradictory goals, operating under different departmental jurisdictions. Its functioning occurs under conditions of stochastic uncertainty of indicators, which leads to significant difficulties in the traditional approach to resource allocation. Existing management methods do not fully account for the specifics of such systems, necessitating the development of new theoretical and methodological foundations for designing an effective multi-level resource management structure resilient to the impact of uncertain factors of the internal and external environment.
Purpose. To develop a concept for designing a multi-level hierarchical resource allocation structure for a passenger transportation system, which corresponds to its unique characteristics as a complex ergatic system operating under conditions of inherent stochastic uncertainty.
Materials and methods. The research is based on a systems approach, including the analysis, representation, calculation, and synthesis of complex systems. The theoretical foundation utilizes the theory of multi-level hierarchical systems, decision theory under uncertainty, and probabilistic analysis methods. To formalize the resource allocation process, an apparatus of logical operators (LOs) is proposed, presented as morphological matrices that aggregate performance indicators of various transport modes for a set of mutually exclusive information states. This allows for the calculation of evaluation functionals considering probability distributions and weighting coefficients characterizing the importance of each parameter.
Results. A concept for representing the resource allocation system as a multi-echelon hierarchical structure has been developed. The fundamental component of the elaborated hierarchical framework consists of logical operators (LOs), situated at the lowest management level, responsible for consolidating data received from various transport modalities and for accounting for their current informational states. A mathematical model in the form of an evaluation functional matrix is proposed, enabling the formalization of resource allocation efficiency calculations for diverse scenarios. The concept of a ‘district’ has been introduced, defined as a collection of LOs within a single echelon, which facilitates system structuring based on territorial or functional attributes. The resulting model provides a foundation for subsequent analysis and synthesis of an optimal management structure under conditions of incomplete information.
222-243
Optimization of resource allocation in the transport system
摘要
Background. The study considers the problem related to the distribution of resources within the transport system. It shows how a multi-criteria model is formed. A short-term (current allocation of resources) and a long-term (strategic allocation of resources) task is highlighted. The substantiation of the use of a multi-criteria approach is given. The structure of the transport system is presented in the form of a graph. The principles of resource allocation in the transport system under various conditions are considered in detail. The features of solving the problem related to the optimization of the transport system from the point of view of the distribution of interdependent limited resources are considered. The proposed approaches are universal, allowing you to consider the features of various transport companies.
Purpose. Development of a model that allows optimizing the distribution of resources within the transport system.
Materials and methods. The main research methods are related to the application of graph theory and the multi-criteria model.
Results. In the paper, the basic principles and features of the distribution of resources in the transport system are considered in detail. Due to the invariance of the models used, they can be used in a variety of transport companies, it is only necessary to configure the appropriate parameters. The results of the work can be used in logistics companies to improve the efficiency of their work.
244-267
Information technology architecture of the railway station complex
摘要
Background. The study examines the complexity of processing information flows of railway station complexes, due to the continuity, mass, heterogeneity of incoming information for the client, as well as the lack of a railway station transport logistics system, as the most manageable factor. The task of this type is to find organizational solutions to improve the efficiency of the management system, based on the parameters of information flows of railway station complexes.
A distinctive solution in relation to railway stations, in our case, considers the need to integrate communication models and their transformation in relation to railway station complexes. It is proposed that by adjusting the life cycle of the station system, taking into account possible errors and the influence of information flows, it will allow to identify patterns based on the prerequisites for passenger appeals.
Purpose – the goal is to increase the efficiency of railway station management based on accounting and optimization of information flow parameters.
Materials and methods. The work uses practical and theoretical methods: cause-effect relationships, mapping and data analysis, analysis, etc.
Results. Defining the principles of functioning of the communication environment and information flows of the housing and communal services, as a separate structural component of the logistics system, will solve the task. This article proposes the architecture of the information technology of the housing and communal services and the communication model of Theodore Newcomb, using the example of the information field of the housing and communal services (modified).
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