ECOFRACTAL-2: MODELING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NATURE AND SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL REGIONS BY MEANS OF FRACTAL GEOMETRY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE XIX CENTURY

The results of modeling the interaction of an agrarian society and natural environment are discussed. This scientific perspective is relevant in the context of socio-natural history. The objects of the study are eight agricultural provinces of the European part of Russia: Tambov, Ryazan, Penza, Voronezh, Kursk, Orel, Tula, Saratov. The chronological scope of work is the second half of the XIX century. The fractal simulation technology to reconstruct the scenario of development and environmental management strategies is used. The set of indicators used to formalize the controlling factors are considered. The indicator is calculated on the basis of objective data and expert judgment. Modeling led to the following conclusions. Regions differed, as they were at different stages within the same pattern. Different provinces differ only in the degree of approximation to the survival borders. Studied agrarian societies were in a trap: not one of the following changes have led to a positive result. Theoretically, the positive development scenarios (e. g. reducing pressure on the environment) are represented historically unlikely due to the intrinsic properties of agrarian societies. Therefore, societies have chosen to maintain the status quo as the only possible strategy. Further development was possible only as a qualitative reformat the whole system of society-nature relations. This included the introduction of modern agricultural technologies and environmental management.

socio-natural history, fractal simulation, man and nature, agrarian society