Analysis of economic and mathematical methods for forecasting staffing levels of units headcount

the purpose of the study is to analyze current methods of forecasting the staff number of employees of structural and to develop a forecasting method based on regression model building. Methods: the methods used in the presented study uses the approach based on the construction of nested piecewise linear regressions. Findings: the study presents a model that allows forecasting of staffing levels on the example of information protection units. The vector of triggering of the model indicates that the key factor determining the dynamics of the output variable is the total number of employees of the organization (headcount). Conclusions: among the existing mathematical methods of forecasting the number of employees the approach based on the construction of piecewise linear regressions is quite convenient and well interpreted tool. The constructed model can be used in forecasting and estimating the number of employees of information protection units in ensuring the required level of security in personal data information systems. At the same time, the analysis of the model shows that when calculating the number of employees of information protection subdivisions the key factor is the scale of the organization characterized by the list number of its employees.

information protection, regression model, adequacy criteria, forecasting, piecewise linear regression, staffing of information protection units