From one-dimensional statistics to a causal-analytical approach: regional stratification of factors on the example of alcoholism analysis in Russia

regional differences in the socio-economic development of Russia are extremely large and manifest themselves across many indicators – from poverty levels to public health. Nevertheless, official regional statistics in the Russian Federation have traditionally been limited to recording the indicators (outcomes) for each federal subject, without revealing which factors determine these results in different regions. In other words, the current approach is largely one-dimensional: each region is characterized by a set of values of indicators Y, while the causal mechanisms remain “behind the scenes.” This creates a serious gap in analytics, since without understanding the causes of regional problems it is difficult to develop effective policy solutions. For example, it is known that alcoholism and related diseases have very different prevalence across regions (in 2019, an average of 52 newly diagnosed cases of alcoholism per 100,000 people nationwide, while in the Far Eastern Federal District the figure was 93, and in the North Caucasus only 19). However, simple statistics only make it clear where the problem is more acute, but not why. This paper describes a mechanism that helps to overcome this limitation through a causally oriented analysis. The work was carried out within the framework of the project «Development of a methodology for the formation of an instrumental base for analysis and modeling of spatial socio-economic development of systems in the context of digitalization based on internal reserves» (FSEG- 2023-0008).

causal-analytical approach, factor stratification, alcoholism in regions, regional level of alcoholism, typologization by influence profile