Consumer Confidence Index as a Determinant of the Crime Level in Russia

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Abstract

The author examines the factors influencing the crime rate and offers an analysis of crime dynamics in the context of changes in the index of consumer sentiment of Russians. The index is calculated based on answers to questions about the perception of the economic situation and its likely prospects. Time series analysis and correlation analysis for the entire population, as well as for individual groups that are presented in the material, can become the basis for mathematical modeling, which takes into account both economic and demographic factors reflecting the current situation.

About the authors

Anna Timurovna Vergazova

Department of Sociology, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: ATVergazova@fa.ru

Assistant

Russian Federation

References

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  3. Becker G. S. The economic way of looking at life. 1992. URL: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/law_and_economics
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  14. Кузнецова Н. Ф., Лунеева В. В. Криминология: учебник / под науч. ред. Н. Ф. Кузнецовой, В. В. Лунеева. 2-е изд., перераб. и доп. М. : Волтерс Клувер, 2007.
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  17. Lopes T., De Jesus C. S. Consumer confidence and household spending: evidence from Brazil // The Empirical Economics Letters. 2016. № 15/12. Pp. 1227–1234.
  18. Kilic E., Cankaya S. Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach // Applied Economics. 2016. № 32. Vol. 48. Pp. 3062–3080.
  19. Mazurek J., Mielcová E. Is consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? An evidence from the USA // Economics and Management. 2017. №2. Vol. 20. Pp. 30–45.
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  23. Fleisher B. M. The effect of income on delinquency // The American Economic Review. 1966. № 1/2. Vol. 56. Pp. 118–137.
  24. Ehrlich I. Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation // Journal of political Economy. 1973. №. 3. Vol. 81. Pp. 521–565.
  25. Becker G. S. The economic way of looking at life. 1992. URL: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/law_and_economics
  26. Kizilgol O., Selim S. Socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime by panel count data analysis: the case of EU and Turkey // Journal of Business Economics and Finance. 2017. № 1. Vol. 6. Pp. 31–41.
  27. Bhorat H. et al. Socio-economic determinants of crime in South Africa: an Empirical Assessment. 2017. URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/za
  28. Brosnan S. The socioeconomic determinants of crime in Ireland from 2003-2012 // The Economic and Social Review. 2018. № 2. Vol. 49. Pp. 127–143.
  29. Anwar A., Arshed N., Anwar S. Socio-economic Determinants of Crime: An Empirical Study of Pakistan // International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 2017. №. 1. Vol. 7. Pp. 312–322.
  30. Loughran T. A. et al. Can rational choice be considered a general theory of crime? Evidence from individual-level panel data // Criminology. 2016. № 1. Vol. 54. Pp. 86–112.
  31. Neissl K. et al. Rational Choice and the Gender Gap in Crime: Establishing the Generality of Rational Choice Theory in Russia and Ukraine // Justice Quarterly. 2019. № 6. Vol. 36. Pp. 1096–1121.
  32. Pieszko G. The influence of socio-economic factors on crime // IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science. 2016. № 9. Vol. 21. Pp. 18–21.
  33. Lobonţ O. R. et al. The effect of socioeconomic factors on crime rates in Romania: a macro-level analysis // Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja. 2017. № 1. Vol. 30. Pp. 91–111.
  34. Bellitto M., Coccia M. Interrelationships between Violent crime, demographic and socioeconomic factors: A preliminary analysis between Central-Northern European countries and Mediterranean countries // Journal Econ. Soc. Thoug. JE ST. 2018. № 3. Vol. 5. Pp. 230–260.
  35. Goroshko I. Et al. Data analysis of the socio-economic factors’ influence on the state of crime // Big Data-driven World: Legislation Issues and Control Technologies. Springer, Cham. 2019. Pp. 71–84.
  36. Кузнецова Н. Ф., Лунеева В. В. Криминология: учебник / под науч. ред. Н. Ф. Кузнецовой, В. В. Лунеева. 2-е изд., перераб. и доп. М. : Волтерс Клувер, 2007.
  37. Kłopocka A. M. Does consumer confidence forecast household saving and borrowing behavior? Evidence for Poland // Social indicators research. 2017. № 2. Vol. 133. Pp. 693–717.
  38. Karasoy Can H. G., Yüncüler Ç. The explanatory power and the forecast performance of consumer confidence indices for private consumption growth in Turkey // Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 2018. №. 9. Vol. 54. Pp. 2136–2152.
  39. Lopes T., De Jesus C. S. Consumer confidence and household spending: evidence from Brazil // The Empirical Economics Letters. 2016. № 15/12. Pp. 1227–1234.
  40. Kilic E., Cankaya S. Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach // Applied Economics. 2016. № 32. Vol. 48. Pp. 3062–3080.
  41. Mazurek J., Mielcová E. Is consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? An evidence from the USA // Economics and Management. 2017. №2. Vol. 20. Pp. 30–45.
  42. McMillan D. G. Which Variables Predict and Forecast Stock Market Returns? // Predicting Stock Returns. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. 2018. Pp. 77–101.
  43. ФОМ. Динамика Индекса потребительских настроений россиян // Фонд общественного мнения URL: https://fom.ru/Ekonomika/14238
  44. GfK. Индексы потребительских настроений в России // GfK URL: https://www.gfk.com/ru/insaity/press-release/issledovanie-gfk-indeksy-potrebitelskikh-nastroenii-v-rossii/

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