Development of the New Silk Road Project through the Caspian Region and its Impact on Energy Relations with Russia

The article analyzes the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Caspian region on energy relations between China and Russia. The subject of the study is the transformation of energy relations between China and Russia under the influence of BRI projects in the Caspian region, including infrastructure initiatives (BTK railway, Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline), their role in creating alternative transit routes that bypass Russia. The geoeconomic expansion of China, its impact on the redistribution of the balance of power in Eurasia, competition for control over energy resources and logistics are analyzed. The contradictions between formal cooperation (EAEU, SCO) and hidden rivalry are studied, as well as the consequences for Russia's energy security: the risks of reducing the transit monopoly, weakening positions in Central Asia. Historical parallels between BRI and the Silk Road are considered, emphasizing the strategic continuity of Chinese policy. The methodology includes a historical and comparative analysis of the evolution of the Silk Road, a systematic study of strategic documents (agreements, development programs) and case studies of key projects (2013–2024), such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway and the Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline. The novelty of the study lies in the synthesis of historical parallels between ancient trade routes and modern infrastructure projects, as well as in the focus on the role of the Caspian region as a hub of energy competition. The results demonstrate that Chinese investments in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are forming alternative transit corridors to Russian ones, intensifying competition for influence in Eurasia. This creates risks for Russia's monopoly on energy transport, despite attempts to synchronize interests through the EAEU and the SCO. The scope of application of the results includes forecasting scenarios of Eurasian integration, developing energy diplomacy and analyzing the balance between cooperation and rivalry in the region. The findings highlight the need for a flexible strategy for Russia to maintain its position in Central Asia, including adapting to China’s growing economic presence and finding niches in new supply chains.

New Silk Road, One Belt, One Road, Caspian region, energy security, China, Russia, geopolitical competition, Eurasian integration, transport corridors, Central Asia