Forsajt

This paper aims to address the limitations of traditional strategic foresight methodologies, specifically the Futures Cone (FC), by introducing and evaluating a novel framework called the Adaptive Futures Mesh (AFM). The study employs a conceptual analysis, drawing on systems thinking, complexity science, and participatory design principles to develop the AFM. The AFM is structured around key components including a dynamic mesh network, uncertainty gradients, adaptive feedback loops, and an emergence engine. The analysis finds that the AFM offers a more robust approach to navigating uncertainty by explicitly incorporating unknown unknowns (dark matter nodes). It visualizes cascading impacts, emphasizing human agency, and enables continuous adaptation through feedback loops. Research limitations include the lack of empirical validation and potential challenges in implementing the AFM across diverse contexts. However, the AFM offers significant practical implications for strategic planning. It enables organizations to move beyond prediction and cultivate futures-readiness. Socially, the AFM promotes more inclusive and equitable futures by democratizing foresight and empowering stakeholders to shape their own destinies. The originality and value of this paper lie in its articulation of a novel, adaptive framework that enhances strategic resilience in facing complexity and multiple crises.

Advances in technology, growing concern about climate change, and the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in many countries have contributed to a significant increase in the demand for alternative fuel vehicles globally over the last decade. Electric vehicles, which include all-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are the most promising alternative to conventional hydrocarbon vehicles. It is very likely that in some regions of the world electric vehicles will dominate the market as early as the 2030s. However, compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, the production of electric vehicles requires a wider range of non-ferrous metals, which may become one of the bottlenecks for further electrification of transportation. This paper presents a scenario analysis of the development of the electric vehicle market, and then calculates the key metal requirements for each of the scenarios considered. The results of this analysis reveal that, between now and 2050, the accelerating spread of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on the cobalt market, a moderate impact on the lithium, nickel, and copper markets, and a minor impact on the manganese and aluminum markets. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the increasing use of electric vehicles in the coming decades opens up significant opportunities for countries specializing in the production of non-ferrous metals, including Russia, to increase their supply to global markets.

Appendices

This study investigates how key entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) factors interact and are reconfigured in response to economic turbulence. Using Russia as a case study, we analyze the systemic dynamics of EE through the lens of the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory, identifying the most influential factors driving ecosystem resilience. A quantitative approach was employed using the fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Data were collected from highly experienced experts, including academics and market professionals with extensive knowledge of urban EEs in Russia. Their evaluations provided a robust understanding of causal relationships and the adaptability of EE factors under economic instability. The regulatory environment emerged as the primary driver of EE reconfiguration, significantly influencing other factors. Human capital and access to capital were also critical for sustaining entrepreneurship in turbulent contexts, whereas innovation was highly dependent on external conditions rather than acting as an independent driver. These findings highlight the need for adaptive policies to enhance EE resilience, offering a novel methodological framework for understanding EE adaptability in emerging economies.

In a situation of rapid technological development and the world’s transition to a new technological regime, organizations are faced with the need for digital transformation (DT). This process goes beyond the simple implementation of advanced technologies and involves the management of processes of increased complexity, deep recombinations of business processes, structures, methods of external communications, and so on. However, these factors are not considered by most organizations. In other words, DT is underestimated in terms of complexity, duration, and intensity of adaptation stress. Only 10%-20% of organizations succeed in such a transformation at the first attempt, with large companies failing most often. This study analyzes the reasons why most of these initiatives fail to achieve their goals. Particular emphasis is placed on the link between digital competencies of managers and the impact of technological reforms. For this purpose, an array of relevant publications on the topic of DT over the last five years was analyzed. According to the results, the majority of organizations enter DT without proper preparation in the form of early revision of competencies and corporate culture, going beyond the established models of thinking and behavior, which previously provided competitiveness, but in the new context cease to work. Principles that increase the chances of successful digital transformation are formulated. This article contributes to the growing body of knowledge on management practices in transformational transitions.

In recent years, the topic of dynamic capabilities has acquired new content. As higher-order competencies, they allow one to constantly update oneself with new knowledge, flexibly recombine resources, and adapt to a rapidly changing environment. A key part of dynamic capabilities is working with the future, starting with basic skills - futures literacy (FL). Since this competence is key to the human resources of organizations, its development seems important, starting with university programs. For a long time, there were no objective tools for measuring the degree of their mastery. The authors of this article attempt to fill this problem by offering an innovative approach to identifying and standardizing the assessment of FL competence. Six theoretical dimensions of FL are proposed as a basis for grouping assessment criteria and compiling final assessments and their interpretation. The corresponding dimensions, such as FL sub-competencies that include foresight, the assessment of future scenarios, and decision-making under uncertainty, can be assessed independently of each other. The ability to measure the initial level of FL will allow for the development of more effective educational programs for the development of this competence.