Platinum group metals market factor analysis and modeling of its development directions

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Abstract

Introduction. The first part of the paper reveals the concept and features of platinum group metals. According to the complex of considered parameters of each platinum group metals, including the market volume in physical and value terms, we distinguish three major (palladium, platinum, rhodium) and two minor (iridium, ruthenium) metals. For this research, the markets of five platinum group metals are identified as the object for factor analysis. Theoretical analysis. The platinum group metals market is systematized into two groups: supply factors and demand factors. It also analyzes primary and secondary sources of metals, and provides an overview of key application industries for each metal. Empirical analysis. Based on historical data, we compiled correlation matrices of fundamental factors interrelation between each other and with metal prices. Taking into account the identified correlation dependencies, regression models were developed, which, with a certain degree of accuracy, enable to forecast price dynamics. Results. Carrying out a factor analysis, in addition to stated dependencies and fundamental indicators quantitative assessments, we have summarized platinum group metals market trends.

About the authors

Ilya Alekseevich Stepanov

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8507-5401
SPIN-code: 4765-6710
31 Kashirskoe shosse, Moscow 115409, Russia

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