Estimating the Contributions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Variations in the Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases to Surface Air Temperature Trends from Observations


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Resumo

We have quantitatively estimated the contributions of anthropogenic forcing characterized by variations in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases and of natural variability characterized by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the trends of global surface air temperature from observations since the middle of the nineteenth century on the basis of three-component autoregressive models.

Sobre autores

I. Mokhov

Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Moscow State University

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: mokhov@ifaran.ru
Rússia, Moscow, 119017; Moscow, 119991

D. Smirnov

Saratov Branch of Kotel’nikov Institute of RadioEngineering and Electronics; Institute of Applied Physics

Email: mokhov@ifaran.ru
Rússia, Saratov, 410019; Nizhny Novgorod, 603950

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