The United States as a Source and Recipient of Financial Contagion

The article analyzes the role of the U.S. in the spread of economic crises in the context of applying the methodology of financial contagion. This concept makes it possible to explain the mechanisms of transmission of negative shocks from one country to another through various channel and to assess the intensity of the spread of crises. A variety of techniques and methods for detecting financial contagion, as well as the experience of their use in empirical studies related to the U.S., is presented. The article presents the results of the author's study, in which the U.S. was considered a subject of financial contagion during different periods. The study was carried out using an extensive statistical base, econometric models, and specialized tests for contagion. Numerous instances of financial contagion were recorded, with U.S. economy as the source. Shocks from the U.S. were transmitted through financial and trade channels to countries located in various geographical regions. At the same time, the U.S. itself became a recipient of financial contagion during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis. During the energy crisis, quantitative estimates of the intensity of sectoral contagion in the U.S. economy were also obtained. The most susceptible to high volatility in gas prices were the raw materials sector and industry.

financial contagion, US economy, financial crises, model, assessment of contagion, US industries