Modeling of demographic processes in the Tambov and Tver regions (1989 – 2020)

The aim of the study is to reconstruct the demographic strategies of rural societies. The object of the study is individual settlements and village councils (groups of settlements) of the Tambov and Tver regions (a total of 2861 settlements and 371 village councils). The presented work is undertaken within the framework of a large project on fractal modeling of demographic strategies of the agrarian population of European Russia in a long historical retrospective – since the middle of the XIX century. The chronological framework of the article covers not only the agricultural crisis of the 1990s, but also a certain recovery of some rural settlements in the 2000s - 2010s. To conduct experiments with the proposed computer model, a database was created in which the main parameters of the studied settlements and village councils are presented in a formalized form. The authors conclude that, despite all the differences, the demographic strategies of Tver and Tambov settlements evolve within the same pattern: Tver and Tambov regions are simply in slightly different phases of the same process. Peasant society in the Tver region has less potential as a migration donor and a base for natural growth. The older and northern Tver Region has been following the path of de-settlement and urbanization for a longer time. Tambov peasant society is somewhat less depleted and, therefore, could demonstrate great demographic success in the case of a successful demographic policy.

fractal modeling, historical demography, demographic strategies, rural population, Tambov region, Tver region, migration, birth rate, death rate, demographic factors