Reduction of preferential mortgages as a financial mechanism for stagnation of the market for construction and sale of apartment buildings

the study analyzes the dynamics of the Russian mortgage market in 2024 and its impact on housing prices from developers. Based on data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Construction and DOM.RF for the first half of 2024, key trends were identified: an 18% increase in the volume of mortgages issued, a decrease in the average weighted rate to 8.3%, and an acceleration in price growth for new buildings to 12%. The research methods included a comparative analysis of statistics, regression models for assessing the correlation between rates and prices, and predictive modeling. It was found that preferential programs (for example, "Family Mortgage") provided up to 60% of demand for new buildings, but at the same time stimulated price growth by 8-12%, creating an "overheating effect" of the market. Significant regional differences were revealed: in the Far Eastern Federal District, prices grew by 10-12% due to state support, while in Moscow, growth slowed to 4% due to demand saturation. Trends in the second half of 2024 indicate risks of reduced housing affordability due to the tightening of the maximum debt burden (MDB) to 60% and the reduction of preferential quotas. The results of the study can be used to adjust government programs and developer strategies. Key conclusion: the balance between credit availability and price control requires a differentiated approach to the regions and increased regulation in the economy class segment. Reducing preferential mortgages is a targeted financial mechanism that reduces inflationary pressure by limiting demand, but at the same time provokes stagnation in the primary apartment housing market through falling sales, leading to a reduction in active construction, an increase in the number of unfinished projects and a deterioration in the financial condition of developers.

Russian mortgage market, housing prices, preferential mortgage programs, government support, real estate market forecasting, regional price dynamics, mortgage rates, housing developers, macroprudential regulation, financial mechanism, market overheating effect