Modeling the development of the tourism industry in the Arctic territories

the aim of the study is to develop a methodology for comparative analysis of the development of the tourism industry in the Arctic tourism region of the country based on a mathematical model of the development of the tourism industry in the Arctic territories. The model was tested using the example of the Arctic territories of the USA (Alaska) and Russia (Murmansk region). Methods: autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL model), methods of correlation-regression analysis, allowing to forecast indicators of economic development of Arctic tourist regions. The analysis is carried out using MS Excel and IBM SPSS Statistics data processing software. Findings: the study presents a methodology for comparative analysis of tourism industry development in the Arctic tourism region of countries. An ADL model for tourism industry development in Arctic territories has been developed and tested, allowing for forecasting of economic development indicators in Arctic tourism regions. The ADL model was tested using data from the Murmansk region (Russia) and Alaska (US Arctic territory). Conclusions: The developed mathematical model allows for a comparative analysis of the development of the tourism industry in the Arctic territories of different countries. A comparative analysis of the development of the tourism industry in the Arctic territories of the USA (Alaska) and Russia has been carried out.

international tourism, tourism industry, arctic tourism, arctic territories, ADL model, tourism industry development model