MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN FORECASTING THE EFFICIENCY OF TREATMENT OF CHRONIC HEPATITIS C IN CHILDREN

The study developed a model to predict the response to therapy of children with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) based on a system of multivariate analysis. The mathematical model allows timely correction of treatment, significantly increasing the number of early virologic responses and reducing the probability of recurrence of the disease. Aim -optimization of treatment prior to the onset of therapy with subsequent forecasting of the effectiveness of therapy based on multivariate regression analysis. Materials and methods. The study included 116 patients at the age of 3-18 years with CHC in the replicative phase. Children with CHC were divided into 2 groups of 58 patients. Observations in children with CHC were made using clinical, biochemical, immunological and instrumental methods of research, which helped to obtain the most complete information about children with chronic viral hepatitis C. In the course of the conducted multiple regression analysis, we selected the most significant indicators for the establishment of the resulting mathematical model. Results. The method of forecasting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C in children, developed on the basis of multivariate regression analysis and mathematical modelling of the most important immunological and biochemical parameters, is clinically efficient and justified.

chronic hepatitis, differentiated therapy, multivariate regression analysis