The seasonality index of cybercrimes

The object of the study is cybercrime. The subject of the study is those aspects of the object that can be quantified: the registration of crimes classified as crimes in the field of computer information depending on the period of year. In other words, the crime seasonality index. Special attention should be paid to the fact that this indicator is used relatively rarely in Russian criminology. Modern research on individual (private) issues of crime seasonality is insufficient. We pay special attention to the methodological aspects of calculating such an index, the specifics of extracting the initial statistical information. The main disadvantages in the implementation of the method are indicated. It is proposed to use two ways to calculate the crime seasonality index. The author analyzes the consequences resulting from the formation of a seasonal distribution of cybercrimes. The discovered patterns are compared with the results of our foreign colleagues. We refer to the statistical summary and grouping of material, the documentary method, the calculation of averages, the calculation of the rate of dynamics and the specific weight of a particular statistics in the structure of crime as methods of research. As a result, criminologically significant conclusions were obtained. The calculation of the standard deviation of the dynamics indicators allowed us to determine a reliable interval of the dynamic data series on the state of cybercrimes. The methodology for calculating the values of the seasonality index over a 6-year period, taking into account a significant change in the volume of registered crimes, was tested, compared with the current one and recommended for use. It turned out that all the calculation methods known today are not without drawbacks, since they are unable to take into account the exponential increase in crime. The dependence of the crime seasonality index on the structure over long time intervals was revealed. A pattern has been found indicating that the seasonality index for all crime reflects rather an accounting and registration discipline, while objective dependencies can be detected only when switching to certain types of crime. Some manifestations of the seasonality index of crimes committed using information and communication technologies are analyzed. These features are compared with the seasonal distribution of computer crimes observed by our foreign colleagues. Recommendations and conclusions are given on the prospects for further use of the seasonality index in studying the dynamics of computer crime.

criminology, cybercrime, criminal statistics, crime seasonality, computer fraud, computer, Internet, drug crime, Routine Activity Theory, White collar crime