Regional features of the manifestation of demographic threats in terms of characteristics of marriage, motherhood and childhood

The subject of the research is the regional characteristics of demographic indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood, their relationship with the indicator of natural growth. At the same time, the natural decline of the population is considered as one of the key threats to the demographic and, consequently, national security of the population of the Russian Federation, since it entails a number of economic and geopolitical risks. The variability of indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood is considered in the study as a possible source of variability in natural growth. Therefore, the regional peculiarities of the numerical characteristics of each of these features are analyzed in detail. Special attention is paid to regions showing abnormal values. In addition, the nature of the influence of individual indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood on the natural growth rate has been studied in order to identify key factors determining the variability of the latter. The paper uses methods of exploratory data analysis: elements of descriptive statistics and diagrams to demonstrate trends . The closeness of the relationship between the indicators of the natural growth coefficient and the indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood is also determined and a model of linear regression of the natural growth coefficient on the total fertility rate is constructed. The authors' contribution to the development of the topic is that, despite the simplicity of the stated methods, the study allowed us to identify regions with specific features in one or more indicators of marriage, motherhood, childhood, as well as natural growth. Further study of the features of regional demographic policy, the state of health, and cultural characteristics of the selected regions will allow us to borrow positive experience and correct negative trends, which should lead to a decrease in the factors determining the depopulation of the Russian population in terms of marriage, motherhood and childhood. The regression model allowed us to conclude that measures are needed to increase the total fertility rate, since, among the factors considered, the natural growth rate turned out to be the most sensitive to this trait, which simultaneously characterizes the propensity of women to motherhood and the intensity of fertility

demographic threats, natural population decline, regional demographic features, statistical analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, problems of motherhood, depopulation, total fertility rate, regional variability in demographic indicators