The Geostrategic Rivalry between the U.S. and China in the Mekong Subregion (2009–2024)

Capa

Citar

Texto integral

Resumo

The article analyzes the evolution of geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China in the Mekong subregion from 2009 to 2024. The relevance of the topic is driven by the intensifying competition between the U.S. and China for influence in mainland Southeast Asia, where the Mekong subregion has emerged as a key arena of strategic confrontation with far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications. The object of the study is the geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China in the Mekong subregion. The subject of the study comprises the strategic objectives, instruments, and approaches employed by both powers in their geostrategic competition in the Mekong region during the period from 2009 to 2024. The aim of the study is to identify the differences in strategic goals, tools, and approaches of the two powers and to assess how these differences influence the transformation of the regional architecture of international relations. The methodological foundation of the research is grounded in the neorealist theory of international relations and employs methods such as content analysis, case studies, genetic history, and comparative historical analysis. The findings indicate that China pursues regional hegemony through the Belt and Road Initiative, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism, and control over water resources, whereas the United States emphasizes soft containment, managerial support, and institutional partnership via the Lower Mekong Initiative and the Mekong-U.S. Partnership (MUSP). The scientific novelty of the study lies in its comprehensive comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese strategies in the Mekong subregion within the neorealist paradigm, with a specific focus on institutional mechanisms of influence and the transformation of the regional balance of power. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which great powers exert influence amid a shifting balance of power in mainland Southeast Asia. It may also prove useful in formulating foreign policy strategies for small and medium-sized states in the region under conditions of external pressure.

Bibliografia

  1. Бутко А. А. Развитие трансграничного речного сотрудничества в субрегионе Большого Меконга // Юго‑Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития. 2022. Т. 4, № 4 (57). С. 46-57. doi: 10.31696/2072-8271-2022-4-4-57-046-057 EDN: OIZLDL.
  2. Ву Тхюи Чанг. Стратегия крупных держав в субрегионе Большого Меконга и возможности конкуренции с ними России: взгляд из Вьетнама // Восточная Азия: факты и аналитика. 2024. № 4. С. 33-46. doi: 10.24412/2686-7702-2024-4-33-46 EDN: VXSNQI.
  3. Ефремова К. А. Региональное сотрудничество в зоне Большого Меконга и стратегии внерегиональных держав // Проблемы Дальнего Востока. 2016. № 1. С. 85-92. EDN: VTLFCB.
  4. Канаев Е. А. Китай, Вьетнам и проблема Меконга // Актуальные проблемы вьетнамоведения-2019: вьетнамо-китайские отношения после войны 1979 года: Сборник статей. Москва: Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт Дальнего Востока Российской академии наук, 2019. С. 166-180. EDN: LZMCXJ.
  5. Канаев Е. А. Логистика электронной коммерции в Субрегионе Большого Меконга // Юго‑Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития. 2023. Т. 1, № 1 (58). С. 31-44. doi: 10.31696/2072-8271-2023-1-1-58-031-044 EDN: WRLGEQ.
  6. Кин Пхеа. Mekong cooperation frameworks and geopolitical dynamics: a Cambodian perspective // Восточная Азия: факты и аналитика. 2024. № 4. С. 6-20. doi: 10.24412/2686-7702-2024-4-6-20 EDN: LTSIAI.
  7. Костюченко И. Г., Трошин А. А., Пале C. E. Меконг как субрегион особых экономических интересов в начале ХХI века // Экономические отношения. 2017. Т. 7, № 3. С. 287-294. doi: 10.18334/eo.7.3.38057 EDN: ZIVRRL.
  8. Нгуен Тхи Ким Ань. Позиция Китайской Народной Республики в отношении использования трансграничной реки Меконг: международно‑правовой анализ // Азиатско‑Тихоокеанский регион: экономика, политика, право. 2021. № 3. С. 182-199. doi: 10.24866/1813-3274/2021-3/182-199 EDN: IEZZIN.
  9. Amano K. China's Hydro‑Hegemony and the United States in the Mekong River Basin // Academia Letters. 2021. Article 4419.
  10. Busbarat Pongphisoot. Grabbing the Forgotten: China's Leadership Consolidation in Mainland Southeast Asia through the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation. No. 7. Singapore: ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, 2018. 8 p.
  11. Chang F. K. The Lower Mekong Initiative & U.S. Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia: Energy, Environment & Power // Orbis. 2013. Vol. 57, No. 2. P. 282-299.
  12. China calls for enhancing Greater Mekong Subregion cooperation // The State Council of the People's Republic of China. URL: https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202411/08/content_WS672d446fc6d0868f4e8ecb3e.html (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  13. China helps Laos tap hydropower potential, boosts electricity export // Global Times. URL: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280715.shtml (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  14. China‑Laos Railway Project Timeline and All You Need to Know // Construction Review Online. URL: https://constructionreviewonline.com/project-timelines/the-completion-of-the-china-laos-railway-project-and-all-you-need-to-know/ (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  15. China's Hegemonic Choice in the Mekong Region // East Asia Forum. URL: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/08/30/chinas-hegemonic-choice-in-the-mekong-region/ (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  16. Duong Van Huy, Tran Thi Hai Yen. Rising Strategic Competition Between the United States and China in Mekong River Subregion // Journal Global Policy and Governance. 2021. Vol. 10, No. 2. P. 73-100.
  17. Eyler B., Weatherby C. The Mekong Matters for America and America Matters for the Mekong // East-West Center. URL: https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/the-mekong-matters-americaamerica-matters-the-mekong (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  18. Lim A. “China's ‘Belt and Road' and Mainland Southeast Asia” // IPP Review. URL: http://ippreview.com/index.php/Home/Blog/single/id/345.html (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  19. Lim Ch. Reviewing China's Elite‑Centric Approach in its Relations with Cambodia // ISEAS Perspective. Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 2023. № 101. 13 p.
  20. Limaye S. The US and the Mekong Region: Cooperation for Sustainable and Inclusive Economic Growth // East-West Center. URL: https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/ewwire055limaye.pdf (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  21. Mearsheimer J. J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001. 555 p.
  22. Mekong‑U.S. Partnership. Plan of Action 2021–2023 // Mekong‑U.S. Partnership. URL: https://mekonguspartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/MUSP-Plan-of-Action-2021–2023.pdf (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  23. Mekong‑U.S. Partnership. Plan of Action 2024–2026 // Mekong‑U.S. Partnership. URL: https://mekonguspartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/MUSP-Plan-of-Action-2024-2026-1.pdf (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  24. Phan Thi Hai Yen. The Strategic Adjustments of the United States and China in Southeast Asia: A Case Study of the Mekong Subregion // International Journal of Religion. 2024. Vol. 5, No. 11. P. 1708-1722. doi: 10.61707/scfwgv24 EDN: ICPOVU.
  25. Phan Xuan Dung. Vietnam's hedging amid U.S.-China Mekong rivalry: risk management under uncertainties // The Pacific Review. 2025. Vol. 38, No. 4. P. 646-674.
  26. Remarks by Secretary Clinton // U.S. Department of State. URL: https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/july/126335.htm (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  27. Remarks: The Mekong‑U.S. Partnership – the Mekong Region Deserves Good Partners // U.S. Mission to ASEAN. URL: https://asean.usmission.gov/the-mekong-u-s-partnership-the-mekong-region-deserves-good-partners/ (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  28. Ren Junlin, Peng Ziqian, Pan Xue. New transboundary water resources cooperation for Greater Mekong Subregion: the Lancang‑Mekong Cooperation // Water Policy. 2021. Vol. 23, No. 3. P. 684-699. doi: 10.2166/wp.2021.198 EDN: VUMTPJ.
  29. Snapshot of the State of the Basin Report 2018 // Mekong River Commission. URL: http://interactive.mrcmekong.org/sobr-2018-findings/economic-dimension/ (дата обращения: 24.07.2025).
  30. Sovachana P., Murg B. J. The Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism: Confronting New Realities in Cambodia and the Greater Mekong Subregion // CSCAP Regional Security Outlook + ARF – The Next 25 Years 2019. Singapore: Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, 2019. P. 48-51.
  31. Stepanov A. S. US Policy towards Southeast Asia: from Barack Obama to Joe Biden // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92. P. 1473-1478.
  32. Stimson Center. Mekong mainstream dams. 2020. URL: https://www.stimson.org/2020/mekong-mainstream-dams/ (дата обращения: 24.07.2025).
  33. Strangio S., Li M., Li X. Local rivalries, foreign entanglements: the role of domestic politics in Cambodia's Chinese embrace // International Journal of Asian Studies. 2025. Vol. 22, № 1. P. 66-82.
  34. Strategic competition between the US and China in the Mekong sub-region – impact on Vietnam // Southeast Asia Journal. URL: https://www.tapchidongnama.vn/canh-tranh-chien-luoc-giua-my-va-trung-quoc-tai-tieu-vung-mekong-tac-dong-toi-viet-nam/ (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  35. Tran Ngoc Dung. China-US Strategic Competition in the Lower Mekong Region and Vietnam's Position // Вестник НГУ. Серия: История, филология. 2023. Т. 22, № 10. С. 122-131.
  36. Tran Son Tung. The Impact of U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the Mekong Sub-region on Vietnam's National Interests // Journal of International Relations. 2025. Vol. 5, No. 1. P. 1-11.
  37. Tran Thi Thanh Van. The adjustment of the US strategy towards ASEAN in recent years and the response of the Mekong sub-region countries // Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology. 2024. Vol. 8, No. 6. P. 1265-1274. doi: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2236 EDN: OQWNZR.
  38. Transboundary impacts of the Mekong River hydropower cascade // Vietnam Energy. URL: https://nangluongvietnam.vn/tac-dong-xuyen-bien-gioi-cua-he-thong-bac-thang-thuy-dien-tren-song-me-kong-28206.html (дата обращения: 24.07.2025).
  39. Tung‑Chieh Tsai, Ming‑Te Hung, Tony Liu, Ting Liu. China's foreign policy in Southeast Asia: Harmonious worldview and its impact on good neighbor diplomacy // Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia. 2011. Vol. 10, No. 1. P. 25-42.
  40. U.S.‑Indo‑Pacific Strategy // The White House. URL: https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  41. Walt K. N. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw‑Hill, 1979. 251 p.
  42. Xue Gong. The Mekong Region Is a Test of China's Global Development and Security Model // Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 01.12.2023. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/12/the-mekong-region-is-a-test-of-chinas-global-development-and-security-model?lang=en (дата обращения: 25.07.2025).
  43. Yoshimatsu H. The United States, China, and Geopolitics in the Mekong Region // Asian Affairs: An American Review. 2015. Vol. 42, No. 4. P. 173-194.

Arquivos suplementares

Arquivos suplementares
Ação
1. JATS XML
Baixar

Согласие на обработку персональных данных

 

Используя сайт https://journals.rcsi.science, я (далее – «Пользователь» или «Субъект персональных данных») даю согласие на обработку персональных данных на этом сайте (текст Согласия) и на обработку персональных данных с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика» (текст Согласия).