No 4 (2025)

Articles

China's humanitarian aid as a tool for creating a positive image in the international arena

Qiu S.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of humanitarian aid from the People's Republic of China as a tool for creating a positive international image. The author examines the evolution of China's approaches to humanitarian activities over the past two decades, starting with limited participation in the aftermath of natural disasters and ending with an expanded role in armed conflict and global epidemics. The focus is on the key factors determining the specifics of Chinese humanitarian diplomacy: cultural and historical traditions, a state-centric approach and the desire to preserve the principles of non-interference and respect for sovereignty. Special attention is paid to China's cooperation with international organizations and Southeast Asian countries, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, when humanitarian aid was used not only to meet urgent needs, but also to strengthen bilateral ties. Thus, the subject of the study covers the role of humanitarian diplomacy in the modern foreign policy strategy of the People's Republic of China, its impact on the development of soft power and the formation of trust on the part of the world community. The research uses methods of comparative analysis, historical and political approach and case study, which allows us to identify the features of Chinese humanitarian diplomacy and trace its transformation in the international context. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the comprehensive consideration of humanitarian aid from China as a systemic instrument of foreign policy, and not only as a response to crisis situations. The author reveals that, unlike Western practices based on multilateral cooperation and the leading role of NGOs, the Chinese model focuses on government involvement and bilateral aid channels. It is concluded that humanitarian aid has become an important element of China's "soft power" and is closely linked to the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, which allows Beijing to strengthen its political and economic positions in the countries of the Global South. At the same time, challenges remain — limited transparency, a cautious attitude towards non-state actors, and wariness on the part of Western countries. Despite this, China's experience during the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated its ability to quickly mobilize resources and expand the range of international cooperation, which confirms the increasing importance of humanitarian diplomacy in shaping a positive image of China.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):1-14
pages 1-14 views

The importance of the strategic partnership between Russia and China in the context of the US-China trade war

Li N.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of strategic competition between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China, manifested in the form of a trade war that began in 2018. The key stages of the escalation of trade conflicts, the introduction of tariff and non-tariff measures, as well as sanctions restrictions aimed at curbing China's technological development are considered. Special attention is paid to the impact of the US protectionist policy on international trade relations, the processes of globalization and the formation of a new world architecture. The article analyzes the transition from interdependence to the concept of "decoupling" — the economic gap between the two leading powers, which reflects the trend towards the formation of a new bipolarity. The paper also examines the role of Russia as a strategic partner of China and a factor of stability in the context of the growing confrontation between Washington and Beijing. The research uses methods of systemic, comparative, and structural-functional analysis, as well as a historical and political approach that allows us to consider the dynamics of trade confrontation in the context of global transformations of the international system. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the comprehensive consideration of the US-China trade war as an integral part of a broader strategy of geo-economic and technological deterrence, which makes it possible to assess its impact not only on bilateral relations, but also on the transformation of the global political and economic system. It is shown that the trade confrontation has become an essential element of the transition to a new world order based on bipolarity and rivalry between global centers of power. The role of Russia as a key partner of China, ensuring a balance of interests and forming alternative mechanisms for international cooperation, is revealed. It is concluded that the further development of Sino-American competition will determine the structure of international relations and the nature of global security in the 21st century.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):15-29
pages 15-29 views

Sport as an instrument of Russia's "soft power" under international restrictions

Kolosov A.A.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of sport as the most important tool for implementing the concept of "soft power" of the Russian Federation in the system of modern international relations. The focus is on the role of sports diplomacy in shaping Russia's positive image on the world stage, as well as the transformation of its functions in the face of sanctions pressure and politicization of sports. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the largest sports projects – the Olympic Games in Sochi (2014) and the FIFA World Cup (2018) – as examples of successful use of sports to strengthen the country's foreign policy prestige. The article examines the current challenges associated with the introduction of the neutral status of Russian athletes, the restriction of the use of national symbols and the growing number of cases of changing sports citizenship, which indicates a profound transformation of the international sports space and a decrease in Russia's ability to realize the potential of "soft power". The research is based on systematic, institutional and comparative analytical approaches, as well as on the case study method used in the analysis of specific international sporting events and political and legal decisions. The scientific novelty of the article lies in a comprehensive assessment of the current state of Russian sports diplomacy through the prism of the concept of "soft power" in conditions of international isolation. It is shown that sport, which previously acted as an effective tool for shaping the national image, was influenced by political factors, which led to an institutional crisis of the Olympic movement and a revision of the principles of neutrality. The article substantiates that the introduction of the neutral status of Russian athletes and restrictions on their participation in competitions have turned into a form of political pressure that violates the foundations of sports equality. It is concluded that, despite external barriers, Russia retains the potential of "soft power" through the development of domestic sports projects, the expansion of international initiatives outside Western institutions (BRICS, "Games of the Future") and the preservation of cultural influence through sports as a symbol of national identity.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):30-43
pages 30-43 views

Approaches to demographic development governance in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals : international experience

Yanik A.A., Popova S.M.

Abstract

The article presents the results of an analysis of contemporary international experience, conducted with the aim of identifying the most common approaches to managing demographic development in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The topic of managing national demographic development in the context of achieving the SDGs is a relevant research direction, as a deep understanding of the dynamics of global and national demographic changes and their interaction with other global trends, such as climate change, digital transformation, and increased overall tensions in the world, is required for making scientifically grounded managerial decisions. The experience of managing demographic development in the context of achieving the SDGs can be useful for Russia, as from a managerial perspective, the tasks that our country and the international community are addressing in promoting a sustainable development model amid global demographic shifts are similar. The research base consisted of official documents, reports, forecasts, expert publications from international organizations (UN, OECD, IMF, European Commission) and countries from various regions of the world, international statistical data, and relevant scientific literature. The study employed general scientific approaches, semantic analysis, and comparative methods. Groups of factors influencing international approaches to managing demographic development in the context of achieving the SDGs were identified. The ambivalent nature of the influence of global demographic shifts on the prospects for achieving various SDGs was demonstrated. It was concluded that under contemporary conditions, there is a mutual adjustment of demographic management policies in the context of achieving the SDGs and, consequently, an adjustment of policies for achieving the SDGs in the context of the influence of global demographic shifts. The priority approach becomes the use of adaptive management methods. However, adaptation does not mean that the policy is limited to reacting to external challenges. On the contrary, effective adaptive management should be proactive, aimed at purposefully managing demographic changes in light of new realities. One of the promising directions of demographic policy is to facilitate the increase of the share of people of working age in the population structure and create opportunities to more effectively utilize the emerging "demographic dividend" for economic growth.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):44-68
pages 44-68 views

Challenges of Migration Policy in West African Countries: Contradictions Between Regional Integration and National Interests (The Case of Nigeria and Ghana)

Achonwa E.C.

Abstract

The article is dedicated to analyzing the contradictions between regional integration and national interests within the migration policies of West African countries. It focuses on the role of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in regulating migration processes and ensuring the freedom of movement for citizens. Using Nigeria and Ghana as examples, it examines the reasons and forms of divergence between the commitments stemming from the ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement of Persons and the internal priorities of the member states. The paper highlights the historical, economic, and legal prerequisites of migration policy and identifies key socio-economic factors influencing the extent of its implementation. Particular attention is paid to the impact of national protectionist measures on the effectiveness of the integration process in the West African region. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research relies on the principles of regionalism and neofunctionalism, which allow for examining integration processes as the result of the interaction between national interests and supranational institutions. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the comprehensive examination of ECOWAS migration policy through the lens of the national interests of key countries in the region and in identifying mechanisms that hinder the full implementation of the principle of freedom of movement. The article demonstrates that, despite the existence of a developed regulatory framework and institutional mechanisms of ECOWAS, the member states, primarily Nigeria and Ghana, apply its provisions selectively, based on internal socio-economic and political considerations. The author concludes that these contradictions limit the potential for regional integration, intensify the unevenness of migration flows, and maintain the dependence of regional countries on national regulators. The need to harmonize national legislation with ECOWAS norms and to strengthen the role of supranational institutions for the formation of an effective migration space in West Africa is emphasized.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):69-80
pages 69-80 views

The role of the Russian Federation in ensuring the security of Burkina Faso at the present stage.

Wangraoua W.E.

Abstract

This article is dedicated to the analysis of the current stage of foreign policy relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Burkina Faso. It examines a range of political, economic, and humanitarian factors that determine the interaction between the two countries in the context of increasing security threats in the Sahel region and the changing global balance of power. Special attention is paid to Russia's role in strengthening Burkina Faso's defense capabilities and ensuring its national and economic security, as well as in diversifying its international alliances following the decline of France's influence. The impact of cooperation in the military, energy, and mining sectors on the country's internal stability and socio-economic development is analyzed. The significance of Russia's humanitarian support aimed at overcoming the food crisis and improving living conditions is emphasized. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of political, economic, and humanitarian factors, employing systemic and comparative-historical approaches, as well as the analysis of official documents, reports from international organizations, and intergovernmental agreements. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the comprehensive examination of Russia-Burkina Faso relations in the context of contemporary geopolitical dynamics and in identifying trends in Burkina Faso's foreign policy reorientation towards the East. It is shown for the first time that military cooperation with Russia has become a key element of Burkina Faso's strategy to strengthen national sovereignty, supplemented by the expansion of economic and energy ties. The conclusion is made that interaction between the two countries contributes to strengthening stability in the Sahel, aids in the creation of new jobs, and fosters infrastructure development, yet simultaneously increases Burkina Faso's dependence on external partners. It is emphasized that Russian-Burkinabé cooperation has the potential for long-term sustainable development, provided there is a balance between national interests and global challenges.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):81-92
pages 81-92 views

Weaponization of migrants: the case of Turkey

Karpukhin M.K.

Abstract

The subject of the study is the weaponization of migration, specifically focusing on Turkey's policy towards the European Union between 2015 and 2020. The research examines how migration flows were used as a tool for political pressure in the international relations between the EU and Turkey. The author delves into institutional and humanitarian mechanisms of migration management, as well as the role of information campaigns and media discourses in shaping public perception of the crisis. Particular attention is given to the 2016 EU-Turkey agreement and the 2020 Greek-Turkish border crisis, analyzing their impact on the decisions of the European Commission and the European Council regarding quota allocation and external border protection. In a comparative context, the study mentions similar practices of migration pressure by Belarus in 2021 and Morocco towards Spain, highlighting the systemic nature of this phenomenon. The research employs systematic, comparative, and case-oriented approaches, alongside methods of content and event analysis. Empirical data includes statistics from Eurostat, UNHCR, Frontex, official statements, parliamentary reports, and materials from international media. The analysis involves stages such as data collection, thematic coding, interpretation, and comparison of EU political reactions. The scientific novelty of the work lies in identifying the mechanism of how migration flows influence the political decision-making process in the EU. It demonstrates that Ankara's threats to open borders correlated with the acceleration of negotiations on financial support for Turkey and the strengthening of Frontex's mandate. Unlike existing studies focusing on the humanitarian component of the crisis, this research considers migration as a controlled instrument of hybrid pressure. The practical significance of the study is in developing recommendations for European and international institutions to enhance independent migration response mechanisms, reduce dependence on third countries, and improve strategic communication in crisis situations.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):93-109
pages 93-109 views

Postcolonial Ethnopolitical Separatism: Conceptual-Discursive Analysis

Camara S.

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the issue of the rise of separatist movements in the world, accompanied by an increase in the level of conflict in relations between ethnic groups in various countries. The focus of the research is on the theoretical and methodological problems of studying separatism in political science. An attempt is made to propose a new theoretical approach to the study of one type of contemporary ethnopolitical separatism characteristic of countries that have freed themselves from colonial dependence. The object of the research is separatism, while the subject of the research is postcolonial ethnopolitical separatism in divided societies. The goal is to develop a concept of postcolonial ethnopolitical separatism. The significance of conceptualizing postcolonial ethnopolitical separatism as a distinct type of separatism is demonstrated. The concept of "postcolonial" is analyzed as a definition within postcolonial studies that critique colonialism and suggest ways to combat it. The theoretical and methodological framework of the study consists of the postcolonial discourse theories of E. Said and H. Baba, along with the theories of divided societies by S. Rokkan, M. Lipset, and A. Lijphart, which help to substantiate the properties of "postcolonial" and "ethnopolitical" that define the uniqueness of this type of separatism in divided societies. The method of research is conceptual-discursive analysis (F. Oppenheim, W. Connolly). The result of the research, which determines its novelty, is the proposed postcolonial concept of ethnopolitical separatism. The conceptual structure and main features of postcolonial ethnopolitical separatism are described, the meaning of the term "postcolonial" in the semantic field of deeply divided societies is explicated, and the discursive forms of its manifestation are outlined. A methodology for applying the concept to the analysis of political practices of separatist movements in countries of the post-colonial historical period is proposed. The developed conceptual model allows for the formulation of certain principles for managing separatist conflicts in divided societies. Conclusions are drawn about the special role of ethnopolitical separatism in the formation of national states in countries that have liberated themselves from colonial dependence. The methods of applying the postcolonial concept of ethnopolitical separatism for studying the possibilities of constructing integration in deeply divided societies and overcoming accompanying conflicts are clarified.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):110-122
pages 110-122 views

International cooperation of BRICS countries in the field of climate adaptation in agriculture

Zhang Z.

Abstract

Climate change has a profound impact on agricultural systems, creating new challenges for food security and farmers' livelihoods. As developing countries, BRICS play an important role in climate adaptation in agriculture and international cooperation. This article first analyzes the numerous consequences of climate change for agricultural production, including rising temperatures, uneven precipitation, extreme weather events, and socio-economic risks, as well as highlighting the vulnerability of the five countries in terms of water resources, reliance on monsoons, permafrost degradation, deforestation, and drought. Subsequently, practices and paths of agro-climatic adaptation are summarized based on three aspects: the adoption of adaptive technologies by farmers, low-carbon transformation of agriculture, and climate-smart agriculture (CSA). Using literature analysis, comparative analysis, case studies, and policy analysis, a systematic summary and assessment of the current state, challenges, and prospects of BRICS countries' international cooperation in adapting agriculture to climate change are conducted. Research has shown that the adoption of adaptive technologies by farmers can significantly increase their incomes, especially for low-income groups, while low-carbon strategies and CSA provide a pathway for system transformation. The article further discusses the development and challenges of the BRICS agricultural cooperation mechanism and emphasizes the importance of trade coordination and South-South cooperation. Finally, the role of BRICS countries in international cooperation is analyzed, including political commitments, technology transfer, financial support, and food security governance. The study found that by creating transnational knowledge platforms and risk-sharing mechanisms, BRICS countries can play a more significant role in global agro-climatic adaptation. At the same time, in the management of global food security, BRICS countries should continue to act as key exporting nations and promote a more stable and equitable international food trade order. Overall, it is expected that through deepening cooperation and innovative mechanisms, BRICS countries will have a greater impact on agro-climatic adaptation and global governance.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):123-133
pages 123-133 views

The South China Sea and US-China rivalry as interconnected factors of Chinese diplomacy towards ASEAN

Zhao W.

Abstract

The subject of the research is the analysis of China's diplomatic strategy towards the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the context of two interrelated foreign policy factors: the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and the strategic rivalry between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America. Special attention is given to how these factors not only influence China's foreign policy but also shape its substantive and tactical features. The study covers issues of security, regional integration, political pressure, and China's diplomatic initiatives in the region, as well as analyzes the responses of ASEAN countries to the Chinese strategy. The relevance of the topic is determined by the fact that Southeast Asia is becoming a theater for large-scale geopolitical transformations, and China's diplomatic approaches to interaction with ASEAN are gaining significant importance for the future of the entire Asia-Pacific security architecture. Thus, the work aims to identify mechanisms of political influence, configurations of partnership, and diplomatic balances in the context of increasing turbulence. The research is based on the application of a systematic approach and the method of comparative analysis, including the study of official documents, scientific publications, and analytical reports in Russian, English, and Chinese. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the comprehensive approach to analyzing China's diplomatic strategy, viewed through the prism of the simultaneous action of two key factors – the territorial conflict in the South China Sea and strategic rivalry with the United States. Unlike several existing studies, this work emphasizes the mutual reinforcement of these factors and their cumulative impact on the formation of China's dual diplomacy – a combination of assertively defending national sovereignty and striving to maintain stable relations with ASEAN. The timeliness of the topic adds additional significance, as issues of stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region are priorities on the international agenda. Among the main conclusions, it is emphasized that China is implementing an adaptive strategy, simultaneously strengthening its military and political presence in the region while initiating confidence-building measures and cooperation with ASEAN. The work highlights the need for a balance between national interests and the building of robust partnerships, which allows for a reduction in the risks of isolation and international confrontation.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):134-143
pages 134-143 views

Political and Practical Aspects of International Cooperation between China and the South Caucasus in the Field of Renewable Energy (2012–2025)

Xue W.

Abstract

This paper examines the political and legal framework and practices of interaction between China and the South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) in the field of renewable energy sources (RES) for the period 2012–2025. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is actively developing international cooperation, strengthening ties with the countries of the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These countries also face similar challenges in the energy sector, which requires a transition to energy consumption based on the expansion of the use of renewable energy sources. The study examines the evolution of the political and legal frameworks of China and the South Caucasus countries in the renewable energy sector, including national strategies, national legislation, as well as five-year, medium- and long-term plans for energy development, and outlines practical projects for cooperation between China and the countries of the South Caucasus. Systematizing China's documents in the field of renewable energy, the author concludes that within the framework of the renewable energy development policy, the legal framework was gradually improved in accordance with national strategic guidelines, which led to the formation of the "1+N" political structure. On the basis of this framework, action plans aimed at ensuring the implementation of the policy have been consistently implemented. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, China's bilateral relations with the countries of the South Caucasus are strengthening, and their cooperation in the field of renewable energy demonstrates a differentiated approach due to the country's national specifics. Cooperation between China and Armenia is aimed at the implementation of representative projects with a technological demonstration effect, in which the success of an individual project becomes an incentive for further cooperation. Cooperation between China and Azerbaijan in the field of renewable energy is characterized by the greatest systematic, based on the implementation of large-scale wind and solar projects, as well as on the localization of the production of electric vehicles. Georgia and China are focused on hydropower projects, while Georgia, using its geographical location in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, is strengthening cooperation in the field of renewable energy sources.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):144-165
pages 144-165 views

Latin American "soft power" in action: Brazil and Chile as pillars of UNASUR (2004–2017)

Madris Rito S.A.

Abstract

The article examines Latin American "soft power" in Haiti during the period of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) from 2004 to 2017, as a combination of political-diplomatic, humanitarian, policing, and infrastructural practices through which Brazil and Chile served as the main regional pillars of the mission while simultaneously shaping their own models of international influence in the South-South cooperation space. The analysis focuses on the forms of this influence, their institutional connection to the MINUSTAH mandate, and their impact on the legitimization of the mission within Haitian society and the international community. The scientific novelty lies in reconstructing MINUSTAH as an institutional platform where the "soft power" of Brazil and Chile developed not parallel to peacekeeping but within it, relying on military-police and civilian components of the mission. It is shown that Brazil used its status as the leading country in the military component to expand its diplomatic authority and cooperation projects, while Chile established its position through engineering-humanitarian functions and local infrastructural support. The conclusion is drawn that Latin American leadership in MINUSTAH set a specific regional profile for the mission, blending security tasks and practices of international legitimization; however, the limits of "soft power" became evident in trust crises after 2010 and in the ambiguous perception of the mission by Haitian society. The study employed document analysis, quantitative methods, statistical analysis, and comparative studies of the obtained data. The research allows the conclusion that Latin American leadership in MINUSTAH established a specific regional profile for the mission, intertwining security objectives and practices of international legitimization. The "soft power" of Brazil and Chile was institutionally embedded in peacekeeping procedures and developed through them rather than parallel to them. The completion of MINUSTAH and the transition to a subsequent justice support mission confirmed the continuity of this connection, maintaining channels of external influence in less militarized forms. Thus, the Haitian experience demonstrates that in long-term stabilization operations, the coercive and "soft" dimensions of peacekeeping are mutually determined, and the sustainability of external influence is defined not only by resources but also by the level of trust of the host society.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):166-177
pages 166-177 views

Assessment of the impact of environmental factors on the development of heavy industry in the Russian Federation

Ryzhov I.G.

Abstract

This article focuses on assessing the impact of the environmental factor on the development of heavy industry sectors in the Russian Federation in the context of the current sustainable development agenda and external economic constraints. It examines the contradictions between the goal of accelerated industrial growth, the need to ensure technological and budgetary sovereignty, and the requirement to reduce anthropogenic impact. The analysis covers manufacturing and mining industries, their contribution to the economy and budget, and the key environmental effects of industrial expansion. It also examines the regulatory framework for environmental policy, the dynamics of environmental and climate protection costs, the role of ESG approaches (sustainable development principles), and innovation. The study reveals systemic relationships between industrial indices, environmental costs, and strategic goals for sustainable development. The study uses structural-dynamic and comparative analysis of official statistics (Rosstat), legal and institutional analysis of environmental policy, and content analysis of scientific sources on ESG and innovation to interpret causal relationships and assess trends. The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive linking of the dynamics of heavy industry indices with the budgetary dependence on resource revenues and the trajectory of environmental costs, including the climate agenda and R&D. It is shown that the growth of output is accompanied by a faster increase in current environmental protection costs, while the funding for environmental R&D is decreasing, which limits the potential for technological cost reduction. The "sustainability gap" has been identified: the expansion of production without adequate innovation support increases the environmental and fiscal burden on environmental measures. The paper concludes that it is advisable to shift the focus to investments in environmental R&D, the modernization of wastewater treatment facilities and best available technologies, ESG standards and principles, and the alignment of development programs with environmental targets and performance metrics.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):178-195
pages 178-195 views

The problem and prospects of a peaceful transfer of power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Barinov A.A.

Abstract

The relevance of this research stems from the ongoing problem of peaceful transition of power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which negatively impacts the country's socio-political development. The object of this research is the peaceful transition of power in the DRC. The subject of this research is the specific features of the process of peaceful transfer of power in the DRC at the present stage. The goal of this research is to identify the factors influencing the implementation of a peaceful transition of power in the DRC. Particular attention is paid to solving such problems as identifying the factors that contributed to the successful process of the first peaceful transfer of power in the DRC, presenting the FCC-CACH coalition as a manifestation of the unfinished transition of power, determining the role of external forces in the issue of peaceful transition of power in the DRC, and assessing the prospects of maintaining F. Tshisekedi in power after 2028. The research methods used were historical and comparative to compare the existing conditions for the implementation of the peaceful transition of power in the DRC from 1990 to 2021, event analysis for a detailed study of the actions of political actors who facilitated or hindered the process under study, and content analysis for a detailed examination of Congolese legislative texts. The scientific novelty of the study lies in identifying specific features that facilitate and hinder the process of peaceful transition of power in the DRC, based on an analysis of the intra-Congolese historical experience of power transfer and the influence of the international community on this process, as well as in forecasting the possible nature of the transition of power in the DRC in the future. The author concludes that in the history of the DRC, a genuine peaceful transition of power only occurred in 2019, but it was incomplete. Some of the main problems impeding a peaceful transition of power in the DRC are, firstly, the lack of desire on the part of the Congolese authorities to facilitate the transfer of their responsibilities, secondly, the disunity of the Congolese opposition, and thirdly, the presence of major conflicts within the DRC. The international community also plays a significant role in this issue. The possibility of a peaceful transition of power after 2028 appears realistic only if the international community opposes F. Tshisekedi's constitutional reform.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):196-213
pages 196-213 views

Cultural and humanitarian aspects of Cambodian-Russian relations

Pichkhun P.

Abstract

This study examines the humanitarian cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Cambodia, focusing on its core dimensions in education, culture, and tourism. It analyzes the formation, evolution, and institutionalization of this collaboration, alongside its impact on strengthening political dialogue and fostering people-to-people ties. The research scrutinizes the implementation mechanisms of educational projects, cultural initiatives, and tourism exchanges, detailing the involvement of both state and private entities. Particular emphasis is placed on how these humanitarian links enhance mutual understanding, cultivate positive perceptions of both nations, and establish a robust foundation for sustained bilateral engagement. Furthermore, the humanitarian sphere is considered as a self-sufficient instrument within the foreign policy arsenals of both countries. Methodologically, the research employs historical-genetic and comparative-analytical approaches, supplemented by institutional analysis. This integrated methodology allows for tracing the development of interaction formats and assessing the role of governmental and societal structures in their implementation. The novelty of this work lies in its holistic approach to Russian-Cambodian humanitarian interaction, treating it as a unified system encompassing educational, cultural, and tourism channels, and possessing its own independent foreign policy utility. It moves beyond a mere systematization of existing cooperation forms to identify their internal developmental patterns, demonstrate the synergistic effects between different humanitarian components, and define their function in consolidating bilateral relations. An additional original contribution is the focus on humanitarian cooperation as a "soft power" asset capable of augmenting political and economic partnership. The study also highlights the significance of synergy among these humanitarian vectors, which amplifies their overall impact, thereby opening prospects for new cooperation horizons responsive to contemporary challenges. The findings conclude that the humanitarian dimension is a cornerstone of stronger Russian-Cambodian relations, contributing to increased mutual trust, expanded public contacts, and a positive image of the partner country. The study determines that the further advancement of this sphere requires enhanced structural support, improved information dissemination, more active engagement of educational and cultural institutions, and the involvement of new actors such as youth associations, tourism operators, and academic communities. Such a broadening of participation is essential for ensuring the long-term stability and effectiveness of humanitarian interaction.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):214-231
pages 214-231 views

Japan between the Global North and the Global South: Tokyo's Foreign Policy Priorities by Region and Level of Development in 2013-2025

Oshchepkov E.R.

Abstract

In this article, the author analyzes the dynamics of international visits by Japanese prime ministers to identify the most frequently visited continent/region. The aim of the work is to highlight the most and least popular destinations for Japanese leaders' visits to determine Japan's interest in contacts with both developed and developing countries. Initially, it was presumed that over the years, Japanese leaders would increasingly visit developing countries of the Global South due to the rapid growth of nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. However, the conducted research revealed that the most popular destinations for Japanese leaders have been and remain Western countries, particularly in Europe. The second most popular vector for international visits is Asian. Japanese leaders regularly visit ASEAN countries. The Middle East is visited irregularly by Japanese government heads, as are Latin American countries. The African continent is the least popular. Over 12 years, Japanese leaders have visited only 4 African countries. The main tool for studying the visits of Japanese leaders was quantitative analysis. The foreign trips considered were from 2013 to 2025. The author included only bilateral visits, as this format of interaction between leaders most clearly reflects one country's leadership interest in another. The novelty of the work lies in the analysis of foreign visits by Japanese leaders in terms of the most popular continents and regions. Based on the obtained results, it is mathematically proven that Japan tends to prioritize contacts with developed countries, while developing nations play a secondary role. The results can be useful for both theorists and practitioners in international relations. The area of application includes foreign policy agencies, educational institutions, and consulting agencies. The main conclusion can be formulated as follows: despite the rise of the Global South and the world's majority, Japan still focuses on political contacts primarily with developed post-industrial powers of the West. This is confirmed by the fact that Japanese leaders are more willing to engage with heads of state and government in developed Western countries, while their interactions with colleagues from the South and East are more rare and episodic.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):232-266
pages 232-266 views

Russia and Turkey's Relations in the South Caucasus: Managed Rivalry as a New Interaction Model

Nalbandyan K.S.

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the transformation of Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus in the context of geopolitical changes triggered by the Second Karabakh War of 2020. The subject of the research is the emerging model of interaction between the two regional powers, conceptualized by the author as "managed rivalry" or "coerced normalization." Within this framework, four key dimensions of Russian-Turkish interaction in the region are analyzed: military-political, trade-economic, energy, and informational-ideological. Special attention is paid to the transformation of regional alliances – strengthening the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic partnership while simultaneously weakening the Russian-Armenian alliance. The mechanisms of deconfliction that allow Russia and Turkey to maintain a constructive dialogue despite the objective mismatch of strategic interests are explored. Furthermore, the prospects for the implementation of transport projects (the Zangezur Corridor, the Middle Corridor) and their impact on the regional balance of power, as well as the competition of ideological narratives – Turkish neo-Ottomanism and the Russian Eurasian project – are discussed. The study employs a comprehensive approach that combines a comparative analysis of the foreign policy strategies of Russia and Turkey, a case study method to examine specific manifestations of rivalry and cooperation, and elements of systemic analysis of regional security. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the conceptualization of a qualitatively new model of Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus – "managed rivalry," which goes beyond traditional theoretical approaches that consider the relations of the two powers either through the lens of confrontation or strategic partnership. This model captures the paradoxical combination of competition and pragmatic cooperation, wherein both sides, recognizing the objective mismatch of interests, build coordination mechanisms to prevent uncontrolled escalation. The author identifies the structural characteristics of this model: the formation of informal delineation of spheres of influence, the institutionalization of dialogue mechanisms at the highest level, the development of parallel economic projects, and the competition of ideological narratives while avoiding direct confrontation. Together, all this represents an original approach to preventing potential conflicts, which have repeatedly occurred throughout history.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):267-279
pages 267-279 views

Comparative analysis of state policy in the field of digital modernization of the armed forces institution: the experience of East Asian countries and Russia

Almametov A.N., Zagidulina D.V.

Abstract

The study is dedicated to the comparative analysis of the digital modernization of the armed forces in Russia and East Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea). The main subject of the research is the state strategies and concepts, mechanisms of political governance, and technological solutions that define the transformation of defense systems in the context of the proliferation of artificial intelligence technologies, automated management systems, networked reconnaissance and communication systems, and autonomous weapon systems. Based on the analysis of open sources, the study examines how digital technologies change the structure of military organization, shape new models of civil-military interaction, impact state policy, and redistribute power factors in the international system. Trends relevant to the development of the strategic course of the Russian Federation in the field of digital modernization are recorded. In the course of the work, strategic documents defining the directions of scientific, technical, and investment activities in the modernization of the armed forces, reports from research centers, and the current media agenda were analyzed. Methodologically, the study is based on a neorealist understanding of the logic of state behavior in international politics. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the systematic comparison of various models of digital modernization of the armed forces implemented in Russia and East Asian countries, with an emphasis on the differences in their geopolitical imperatives and strategic objectives. It has been revealed that East Asian states carry out digitization in the defense sphere predominantly within the logic of economic-technological growth, network integration of armaments, and active involvement of the civil sector, contributing to the accelerated implementation of AI and autonomous combat systems. The Russian model, on the contrary, is characterized by a centralized approach and a focus on achieving technological and political sovereignty in the face of external pressure. The digitization of the armed forces becomes an independent factor in the redistribution of military power and the transformation of security institutions, with its consequences, risks, and management effects significantly depending on the chosen model of digital development by the state.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):280-293
pages 280-293 views

Military-technical cooperation between the USA, Japan, and the Philippines

Gumbatov N.F., Molokoedov D.I.

Abstract

The subject of the research is the development of military-technical cooperation between the USA, Japan, and the Philippines from 2022 to 2024. The study examines specific mechanisms and directions of this interaction, including: the intensification of the US-Philippines alliance and the evolution of Japan-Philippines relations in the field of security; the formation and institutionalization of a new trilateral partnership between the USA, Japan, and the Philippines; the consideration of cooperation as an element of a broader strategy to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region; the analysis of the reasons for the rapprochement of the three countries, the key one being the response to the increasing military-political pressure of China in the South China Sea; and the exploration of the shift in the foreign policy course of the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which is expressed in the departure from the balancing policy of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte and a decisive return to a close alliance with the USA. The research is based on the following methods: Comparative-historical analysis: Comparing the policies of Philippine President F. Duterte's administration (2016–2022) and the succeeding administration of F. Marcos Jr. regarding relations with China and traditional allies. Systemic approach: Placing trilateral cooperation in the context of a broader regional dynamic, including China's actions in the South China Sea. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the following: A comprehensive analysis of the new trilateral configuration: The work offers a systematic analysis of the formation of the USA-Japan-Philippines partnership as an independent and significant format of regional security, often characterized as a step towards creating a "mini-NATO" in Asia. Identification of synergy between military-technical and economic cooperation: The analysis goes beyond the purely military sphere, demonstrating how infrastructure projects (the "Luzon" economic corridor) and logistics create a sustainable basis for a military-political alliance. The conclusion of this article is the identification of the formation of a strategic triangle. Military-technical cooperation between the USA, Japan, and the Philippines has transformed from a set of bilateral ties into a cohesive trilateral partnership, institutionalized at the highest level (summit in Washington in April 2024) and supported by specific military, economic, and infrastructure initiatives.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):294-307
pages 294-307 views

China-Nigeria strategic alignment challenges and responses under the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiatives

Oriomojor J., Pishcherskaia E.N., Sharenkova T.A.

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative was launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 to promote cooperation and infrastructure development, with the aim of reviving the ancient trade routes of the Great Silk Road that connected China with Asia, Europe and Africa. Even before the start of the project, Nigeria and China had a long history of friendship. Following the signing of the China-Nigeria Belt and Road Initiative, China has increased its direct investment in Nigeria. China's growing presence in Nigeria is driving job creation, infrastructure construction, higher education, and economic development, positioning China as a major investor and trading partner in Africa. Such strategic cooperation also poses some challenges and requires specific responses from both sides. The purpose of this study is to explore ways to promote socio-economic transformation in Nigeria through Chinese investment, strengthening trade relations, and expanding military cooperation. However, increasing militarization and the potential debt burden raise concerns about Nigeria's sovereignty, security, and geopolitical alliances. This paper examines the emerging strategies, partnerships, and other activities of the two countries to promote mutually beneficial economic cooperation and development. In addition, the economic, social and political impact that China has on the Nigerian economy is discussed. Relations between Nigeria and China have improved significantly over the past few decades, and China and Nigeria are constantly developing economic, infrastructural, and diplomatic relations. The Belt and Road Initiative has further advanced this process. While these developing relationships offer great opportunities for Nigeria, they also come with significant challenges. In this article, we will look at the challenges faced by the strategic rapprochement between China and Nigeria in the context of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and ways to address them.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):308-330
pages 308-330 views

From "diplomatic miracle" to systemic tension: modern challenges to the Antarctic Treaty

Ermolaev I.A.

Abstract

The subject of this research is the evolution and contemporary challenges of the Antarctic Treaty System as a unique international legal regime for security and scientific cooperation on the continent. In this article, the author analyzes the historical conditions that led to the formation of the regime, the key compromises of the 1959 Treaty, as well as subsequent crises and their resolutions. The central focus of the work is on two critical events: the crisis at the end of the 1980s related to the issue of resource extraction in Antarctica, resolved by the adoption of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1991, and the current challenges to the Antarctic regime. The study examines how the initial gaps and flexible formulations of the Antarctic Treaty have created conditions for new threats to its stability in changed international circumstances over the long term. The author employs historical analysis methods such as the comparative method, problem-chronological approach, retrospective method, and systematic analysis. Document analysis methods such as content and event analysis were used. The scientific novelty of this work lies in the comprehensive analysis of the Antarctic Treaty System as a system whose resilience has historically depended not on resolving fundamental contradictions among the participants but on their successful postponement during unique historical windows of opportunity. The author concludes that the Madrid Protocol, which saved the system by introducing an indefinite moratorium on resource extraction, has itself laid the groundwork for a new postponed crisis. In the current context of the erosion of global institutions and the resurgence of power politics, this crisis is taking on a systemic character. The article’s conclusions indicate that new challenges—such as the emergence of the military-political bloc AUKUS, which creates the risk of creeping militarization, and the strategies to establish "de facto sovereignty" by Argentina and Chile—undermine the universalist foundations of the Antarctic Treaty System.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):331-341
pages 331-341 views

The humanistic component of China's global and regional policy: key concepts and strategies

Qian Y.

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the humanitarian component of the foreign policy of the People's Republic of China in a regional and global context. The subject of the research is the set of ideological concepts, value orientations, and practical strategies through which China shapes and promotes its humanitarian influence on the international stage. Special attention is paid to the evolution of China’s foreign policy discourse—from the concepts of "peaceful development" and "harmonious world," characteristic of Hu Jintao's leadership, to the idea of a "community of shared future for mankind" and the concept of "cultural soft power under state control," developed and institutionalized during Xi Jinping’s era. The article examines the role of culture, ideology, inter-civilizational dialogue, people’s diplomacy, and humanitarian exchanges as tools for strengthening China's international image, reducing foreign policy risks, and advancing national interests. The analysis covers the interrelation of the internal cultural-ideological policy of the PRC and its projection into foreign policy practice, as well as the influence of humanitarian factors on China's positioning in the system of modern international relations. The study employs civilizational and constructivist approaches, elements of "soft power" theory, as well as methods of comparative political analysis, historical-genetic analysis, and discourse analysis of official documents and speeches by Chinese leaders. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the comprehensive understanding of the humanitarian component of China's foreign policy as a holistic strategy that combines cultural, ideological, and political tools of influence. It concludes that the transition from the concept of a "harmonious world" to the idea of a "community of shared future for mankind" reflects not only the growth of China's international ambitions but also the desire to propose an alternative model of global development based on the principles of cultural diversity, sovereign equality, and mutual benefit. The article also argues that China's humanitarian strategy serves a dual function: on one hand, it aims to create a favorable external environment and strengthen the country's international authority, while on the other, it acts as a tool for internal consolidation and legitimization of the CCP's course.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):342-357
pages 342-357 views

The main trends in the development of oil cooperation between Russia and China in the context of sanctions pressure

Krasnova A.E.

Abstract

The article analyzes the transformation of Russian-Chinese energy cooperation under unprecedented sanctions pressure from Western countries, which is characterized by the dual containment of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. Particular attention is paid to the factors contributing to the deepening of bilateral cooperation: the complementarity of the economies, China's desire to ensure national energy security, and Russia's need to diversify its markets. The object of the study is oil cooperation between Russia and China. The subject of the study is the dynamics of oil trade between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China following the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. The aim of the study is to analyze the main trends in the development of oil cooperation between Russia and China from 2020 to 2025, identify prospects for further interaction between the two countries, as well as risks associated with the imposition of secondary sanctions. The study is based on a combination of historical-dynamic and comparative methods, as well as an analysis of official customs statistics from Russia and China and reports from international energy agencies. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis of the features of the transformation of Russian-Chinese oil cooperation under conditions of sanctions restrictions, de-dollarization, and the reorientation of trade flows. The main conclusion of the study is that Western sanctions pressure, aimed at isolating and weakening Russia's position on the global energy market, has not achieved its goal. Although Russian oil exports to European countries, previously key importers of Russian raw materials, have declined, since 2022 Russia has been able to redirect its energy flows to China. This has contributed to the strengthening of the strategic partnership between the two countries and the creation of a cooperation structure that allows them to bypass restrictions through the transit of oil via third countries and the use of national currencies for payments. Thus, Russia has become a reliable supplier of oil, which is essential for Chinese industry, while China, in turn, has become a key importer of Russian oil, and has maintained this position over the past two years.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):358-371
pages 358-371 views

From "Informatization" to "Intellectualization": The Transformation of China's Military Concepts in the Xi Jinping Era

Dubrovskiy I.R.

Abstract

The focus of this article is the transformation of military concepts of the People's Republic of China during Xi Jinping's leadership. The author examines the transition from "informatization" to "intellectualization" of warfare as a reflection of a broader trend in the evolution of military strategy and doctrine of the PLA in the context of a global revolution in military affairs. The subject of the study is not only the change in the technical foundation of the armed forces but also a rethinking of the principles of active defense, the nature of modern conflicts, and the role of information and artificial intelligence in the military sphere. Special attention is paid to analyzing the organizational reforms of the PLA, the creation of new military branches, and the development of integrated joint operation concepts. The article discusses how Chinese military thought adapts to the challenges of the 21st century and seeks to establish strategic advantages in a rapidly changing international environment. The methodological foundation of the work relies on systemic and comparative-historical approaches, as well as the analysis of official Chinese documents, "White Papers," works of the Academy of Military Sciences, and contemporary studies in the field of security. The novelty of the research lies in a comprehensive examination of the transition from "informatization" to "intellectualization" as a key phase in the modernization of the Chinese military doctrine. The article demonstrates that in the era of Xi Jinping, intellectualization is viewed not as a separate technological innovation but as a systemic process integrating humans, weapons, and methods of warfare into a unified "system of systems." An important conclusion is that China aims to utilize artificial intelligence and related technologies not only to enhance the effectiveness of its armed forces but also to establish a new level of strategic deterrence. It is concluded that the development of the PLA towards intellectualization reflects the PRC's goal of transforming its armed forces into a "world-class army," capable of operating effectively by the mid-21st century amid a new revolution in military affairs and countering any potential adversaries.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):372-383
pages 372-383 views

The American-Cuban "thaw" (2008-2016): a shift in vector or limits of the possible?

Krivova M.S., Podguskov V.N.

Abstract

For more than 50 years, the United States has pursued a regime change strategy in Cuba, while Havana's most sensitive issue has been the preservation of sovereignty and international subjectivity. The period following Raúl Castro's assumption of the presidency of Cuba and the beginning of Barack Obama's presidency in Western analytical and media narratives was termed the "Cuban Thaw." In domestic literature, the term "détente" became more commonly used. The American leadership, for the first time, abandoned its basic approach towards Cuba aimed at dismantling the existing political regime. This coincided with a broader period of a reset in relations with a number of countries, including Russia, Iran, China, and several others. However, U.S.-Cuban relations have always been extremely antagonistic due to geopolitical and historical reasons. Even despite the initial positive momentum, subsequent bilateral contacts were limited to the formal restoration of diplomatic relations and the resumption of cooperation within international organizations, primarily of a regional nature. The paper examines the state of bilateral relations during Raúl Castro's presidency and attempts to forecast their future development. It focuses on the specifics of foreign policy decision-making shaped in both countries. The emphasis is placed on the role of the Cuban diaspora as one of the decisive factors that determined the contradictions in the process of normalizing bilateral relations. The conducted research confirms the hypothesis that the return to anti-Cuban rhetoric under President Trump was a consequence of the specific nature of foreign policy decision-making. The Cuban diaspora, long shaped by dissident immigrants, played a significant role in this context. This contributed to its initially high degree of political engagement compared to other ethnic diasporas. The specificity of foreign policy decision-making in the U.S. is reflected in Congress's efforts to enhance its influence over foreign policy. This effectively led to the creation of certain mechanisms that hindered the normalization of relations with Havana. On the other hand, among the Cuban political elite, there are also significant fears that the benefits of lifting a number of sanctions will not outweigh the risks associated with possible negative consequences from potential pressure from the U.S. on various political and ideological issues.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):384-397
pages 384-397 views

Structural adjustment and reproduction of dependency in African countries, 1980s–1990s.

Osuji K.C.

Abstract

During the transformative decades of the 1980s and 1990s, structural adjustment programs (SAPs) became a significant driving force on the African continent, heralding economic stabilization. However, these initiatives often led to sustained poverty and a legacy of dependency, creating dynamics that continue to shape the trajectory of Africa's future. The study delves into the complex dynamics of global financial governance, particularly as it is based on conditional lending mechanisms and administered by institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. It examines the interrelationship of these structures with the fragile frameworks of postcolonial institutions, which ultimately influence the operational capacity of African states. This research employs a comparative-historical approach, combining information drawn from archival documents, testimonies from prominent figures, and analysis of macroeconomic indicators. The study utilizes Bretton Woods technical documents and national archives from Angola, Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), and Angola. The dependency reproduction model illustrates how conditionality creates long-term structural constraints, and data from the African Development Bank and World Development Indicators (2024) confirm this. The findings reveal a paradoxical factor: while SAPs achieved short-term stabilization, they simultaneously dismantled industrial policy, reduced real wages, and further tethered the economy to volatile raw commodities. Ghana's reformist zeal did not lead to diversification; rural incomes in Côte d'Ivoire declined; Zaire perfected "executive discipline," undermining institutions; rentier experiments in Algeria and Angola failed due to partial reforms. Ultimately, the study argues that SAPs reinforce dependency by limiting political autonomy and institutionalizing external oversight. The implications of this are clear: restoring financial sovereignty in the region, revitalizing industrial policy, ensuring debt transparency, and incorporating social protection into the budgeting system are essential steps toward breaking the vicious cycle of restructuring and dependency.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):398-407
pages 398-407 views

The evolution and current state of the national emergency management system in the People's Republic of China

Sun E.

Abstract

This research examines the evolution and current state of the national emergency management system in the People's Republic of China. It focuses on regulatory frameworks, the institutional structure, and key reforms in emergency management in China, focusing on the 21st century. The author examines in detail aspects of the topic, including the historical stages of the emergency management system's development, an analysis of regulatory documents, and the institutional architecture of the bodies responsible for emergency prevention and response. Particular attention is given to a comprehensive analysis of the large-scale reform of 2018, which resulted in the establishment of the Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China, as well as to identifying the unique national characteristics of the Chinese model, which combines elements of international experience and domestic developments. The research utilizes a combination of methods, including institutional and historical analysis, document analysis, and comparative analysis to compare the Chinese emergency management system with its international counterparts. The research's novelty lies in its comprehensive conceptualization of China's emergency management system as a dynamic model that has evolved from extreme dispersion of functions across agencies to centralization within a single ministry. The paper systematizes three key stages in the system's evolution and identifies four unique governance mechanisms characteristic of Chinese practice. The study's main conclusion is that the modern Chinese emergency management system, integrating the best features of Western (integrated management) and Russian (separate ministry) approaches, has demonstrated high effectiveness, as evidenced by its successful crisis management during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also demonstrated that, despite these achievements, the system continues to actively develop, focusing on digitalization and technological modernization of all processes to address new challenges.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(4):408-419
pages 408-419 views

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