No 4 (2025)

The features of atmospheric pollution in several settlements of various sizes, with significantly different levels of economic activity, located in different landscape and morphological conditions across a significant territory from the Ural Mountains to the Pacific Ocean have been studied. Students from the Siberian School of Geo-Sciences of Irkutsk National Research Technical University, coming from various cities, collected snowpack samples during the winter break, carried out sample preparation on-site, and then brought samples of snowmelt water and dry residue to the Institute's laboratories. The aim of detailed characterization of the atmospheric geochemical situation in each area was not set; the work is aimed at studying the possible ranges of technogenic and natural variability of concentrations of insoluble and soluble forms of pollutants in the air of industrial and background areas within the northeastern part of Eurasia, which is necessary for the development of a theoretical basis for ecological monitoring systems and assessment of the background state of natural and anthropogenic complexes within various projects of economic development of this vast and resource-rich part of Russia. Since the entire area considered is characterized by a long winter, the best way to integrally assess air quality is through studies of the snow cover. This work examined the chemical composition of the solid residue and snowmelt water and conducted a comparative assessment of median and limit concentrations among different sites. The authors consider snow geochemical surveying as the most promising method for studying background atmospheric states and assessing the impact of new and existing industrial facilities on it, which should become an integral part of the ecological support of economic activities in northern regions. However, the regulatory framework for such data is currently lacking, and new data on the snow geochemistry of various northern territories must be introduced into scientific circulation for its formation, as only on the basis of summarizing a significant volume of geochemical information can reliable and justified judgments be made regarding regional and local background issues, facts of its exceedances, and the significance of these exceedances. In addition to the direct data from various regions with different levels and types of load, among the important results are the factual assessments of the informativeness of various approaches to the methodology of snow geochemical studies.

Along with being one of the biggest northern industrial IEGSs globally, the Norilsk IEGS is also one of the most ecologically troublesome. One of the large-scale environmental disasters was the diesel fuel spill in Norilsk, which occurred on May 29, 2020, in the Kayerkan area of the city of Norilsk. The accident resulted in the leak of about 21,000 tons of diesel fuel. This disaster was one of the largest in the history of the Arctic: fuel entered the soil and nearby water bodies, including the Ambarnaya and Daldykan rivers, as well as Lake Pyasino, which is connected to the Kara Sea. The cause of the accident was the subsidence of the reservoir due to permafrost degradation, aggravated by the lack of timely repairs. The spill resulted in massive contamination of soil and aquatic ecosystems, destruction of fish populations, and accumulation of heavy metals in their livers. Norilsk Nickel is the largest industrial polluter in the Arctic. Norilsk Nickel enterprises annually emit about 1.7 million tons of harmful substances into the atmosphere, and the total volume of emissions in the entire Arctic zone of Canada in 2021 was 57 times less than Norilsk's annual emissions. In 2022, Norilsk accounted for 10.5% of all industrial emissions in Russia. Norilsk is located in a zone of continuous permafrost. In winter, the air temperature can drop to –60°C. Climate change and rising average annual temperatures in the Arctic lead to higher temperatures and even partial degradation of permafrost, which threatens urban infrastructure. Over the coming decades, a significant portion of the buildings in Norilsk will suffer due to foundation subsidence. By 2021, more than 40% of buildings in Norilsk had already been subjected to deformation. Palsa finds are known in the northernmost regions, including the vicinity of Norilsk and even in the northernmost regions of Taimyr. Technogenic seasonal injection frost blisters can form near Norilsk due to large water leaks. The paper summarizes the data characterizing the features of the technoedaphotope, technomicrocoenosis, technophytocoenosis, and technozoocenosis of the Norilsk industrial ecological-geological system and its technogenic transformation: a. The thickness of permafrost within the Taimyr engineering-geological megastructure is 600–1000 m. In most of the region, the average annual ground temperature varies from –11 to –13°C; b. The temperature regime of soils in the central part of Norilsk is characterized by positive dynamics of the average annual ground temperature from –7 (in the 1950s) to –3°C (in 2024); c. Palsa (heaving mounds of migration type) are found in the northernmost regions, including the vicinity of Norilsk and even in the northernmost regions of Taimyr; d. Large palsa are found on the southern edge of the Norilsk Plateau in the valley of the Turumakit River, as well as near the Dudinka town; e. Large syngenetic ice wedge ice was encountered in the high terrace of the Sabler Cape, in the basin of the Lake Labaz, near the Sopochnaya Karga Cape and near Dikson; f. The development of the edaphotope and its technogenic transformation within the Norilsk industrial EGS occurs under the active influence of cryogenesis. It was previously established that the distribution of heavy metals by the profile of contaminated soils changes depending on the source of pollution. In the case of predominance of aerotechnogenic input of pollutants, one clearly expressed maximum is observed in the surface organogenic horizon, and two maxima of accumulation of heavy metals in the soil profile are observed near waste disposal facilities; g. Technogenic transformation of the microbiocenosis of the Norilsk EGS is manifested in the low content of microbial biomass, due to the weakly developed vegetation cover in the city and the high level of heavy metals and other pollutants; h. Technogenic transformation of the zoocenosis has the greatest impact on the number of tundra populations of wild reindeer, which is declining due to overhunting, poaching and the growth of the wolf population, as well as the construction of linear structures and the extension of navigation periods on rivers; i. Technogenic transformation of the phytocenosis of the Norilsk EGS is explained by the poorly developed vegetation cover in the city, unfavorable physical and chemical properties of the soil and, above all, the high level of heavy metals and other pollutants.

The subject of the research is the functional relationship between the thermal conductivity coefficient of snow and its density in a layered structure of the snow cover with various types of snow. The purpose of the research: to determine the range of possible averaging of the thermal conductivity values of a two-layer snow cover, including granular snow and hoarfrost. To achieve this goal, a comparative assessment of the accuracy of formulas for determining the thermal conductivity coefficient of granular snow and hoarfrost was made, which, at the same density, differ in thermal physical characteristics due to varying structures. Well-known linear formulas by Pavlov, Sulakvelidze, and Chernov for hoarfrost and granular snow were used for comparison. The influence of temperature on snow properties was not considered. The two-layer snow cover was regarded as a medium with arbitrarily varying layers in height, the thermal conductivity of each of which is defined by different formulas. To obtain the average thermal conductivity coefficient, the concept of a weighted average parameter was used. In this case, it is the sum of the products of the thermal conductivity coefficient of each layer by its thickness, divided by the thickness of the entire snow cover. The overall formula includes an arbitrary ratio of the layers in the snow cover. As a result of the analysis of variant calculations, the following patterns emerging from the averaging of the thermal conductivity coefficient of the two-layer snow cover were established. When ignoring the presence of layers in the snow cover and calculating its thermal conductivity only according to the formula characteristic of granular snow, the maximum absolute error (depending on the ratio of layer thicknesses) does not exceed 50%. When calculating using the formula characteristic of hoarfrost, the maximum absolute error is approximately twice as large and amounts to almost 100%. The scientific novelty of the research lies in establishing a general quantitative pattern of change in the error of calculating the thermal conductivity coefficient of layered snow cover when using formulas derived for granular snow or only according to formulas characteristic of hoarfrost. The results of variant calculations of the errors that arise when not accounting for the layered structure of the snow cover and when considering layering using the weighted average thermal conductivity coefficient are presented in the form of 2D and 3D graphs, allowing for a visual confirmation of the validity of the conducted research and the conclusions drawn.

Recently, Russia has seen an increase in permafrost temperatures, facilitating the development of hazardous geocryological processes. Estimates of climate change impacts on permafrost are often uncertain due to the lack of observational data, therefore mathematical modeling has become the primary method for studying geocryological conditions. The research objective was to evaluate the feasibility of the model GIPL2.0 for predicting permafrost characteristics in the mountain permafrost of the North-East. We utilized unique data from the regional permafrost monitoring network of the Magadan Region. The relevance of this study is confirmed by the need to consider risks and adapt permafrost regions to projected climate change. The verification of GIPL2.0 model was performed using ground temperature data from two boreholes for the period 2022–2025. A forecast of ground temperature and maximum thaw depth up to 2040 was produced based on data from the AMIP-LFMIP-rmLC experiment of the CMIP6 project. The model was verified to a depth of 10 m. The calculated ground temperature satisfactorily matches observations to a depth of 5 m. Deviations are due to uncertainties in determining the physical properties of the rocks and the impact of hydrological processes on profile heat dynamics, which are not described by the model algorithm. According to the climate change forecast, air temperatures in the upper reaches of the Kolyma River basin will increase by 0.9°C every five years. Projections of ground temperatures through 2040 at two boreholes showed that temperatures will increase at all depths, particularly in the sub-1-meter layer by 2–3°C. The maximum seasonal thaw depth at the Goltsy borehole will exceed 2 meters, while at the Pereval Kulu borehole, despite the increase in ground temperature, it will not increase. The study emphasizes the need to use in-situ data to verify geocryological models to improve forecast accuracy.

In the unique and highly variable territories of the Arctic, average annual air temperatures have been rising over the past few decades, which affects the increase in the depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost, activates thermokarst processes, and leads to changes in the bearing capacity of soils. As a result, the tasks of developing technical solutions for the therm stabilization of foundations, geocryological and geotechnical monitoring, and engineering-geocryological forecasting of territories come to the forefront. One of the main methods for observing the temperature regime of soils is the establishment of permanent thermometric boreholes, which allow for the assessment of both annual and multi-year temperature fluctuations. Based on this principle, the State Background Monitoring System is being created in Russia. However, the state of the temperature regime of the upper layers of the cryolithozone can also be assessed through numerous temperature measurements in boreholes during engineering surveys. The presence of hundreds of measured boreholes allows for the elimination of erroneous values using statistical methods and obtaining a distribution of values across the entire studied area. The article describes methodological approaches to creating a digital model of the upper layers of the cryolithozone in Western Yamal, based on the method of matrix zoning using statistical data processing methods and regression-correlation analysis to identify dependencies between the parameters of relief, landscapes, and the geological environment. The model is based on data from engineering surveys as well as data from remote sensing methods. The proposed approach allows for a comprehensive analysis and monitoring of the state of frozen layers in the territory, as well as the identification of technological and economic complexities during the design and operation of structures. Based on the obtained data, patterns were established for the interpolation and extrapolation of engineering-geocryological conditions in areas with insufficient degrees of study. As a result, a model database was formed with characteristics necessary for conducting thermal engineering forecasts using numerical methods, on the basis of which a dynamic geoinformation model of permafrost conditions was created. The practical significance of the developed approaches lies in their versatility for application in planning activities in the cryolithozone. They can be effectively used in engineering surveys for the development of project documentation, conducting thermal engineering forecasts of soil temperatures at the design stage, as well as within the framework of geotechnical monitoring during the operation of facilities.

The subject of this work is the analysis of the features of using statistical and probabilistic methods adapted for forecasting quasi-ellipsoid geomorphic heterogeneities with the presence of sedimentary hydrocarbon-saturated porous rocks (hydrocarbon hydrates and accumulations of natural gas) in the Laptev marine and coastal segments of the Arctic. The object of research in this work is hydrocarbon-promising quasi-elliptical structures in the sedimentary cover of the Earth's crust in the Arctic waters of the Laptev Sea. The relevance of this work is determined by the use of relatively inexpensive mathematical methods used for statistical and probabilistic forecasting of quasi-ellipsoid geomorphic heterogeneities of potential accumulation of hydrocarbon-containing hydrates and accumulations of natural gas, in conditions of reduced financial investments and expenses of oil and gas companies for geological exploration. Mathematical (probabilistic) forecasting methods are used as a methodology for searching for hydrocarbon hydrates and natural gas accumulations. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that, based on the calculated values of statistical and probabilistic parameters, for the first time a list of hydrocarbon-promising quasi-ellipsoid geomorphological heterogeneities was formed for 48 and quasi-ellipsoid geomorphological heterogeneities in the Laptev Sea and adjacent coastal areas, based on three types of different geological and geophysical data. The conclusions of the study are that, as a result, statistical and probabilistic forecasting of zones of potential accumulation of hydrocarbon hydrates and accumulations of natural gas on the territory of the marine and coastal mainland parts of the Laptev Sea segment of the Russian Arctic was carried out. The practical significance of this work is related to the fact that as a result of the conducted research, it is possible to carry out marine seismic exploration and exploration drilling in certain hydrocarbon-promising areas.

The object of study in this publication is local cryogenic gas-dynamic geosystems, the development of which leads to pneumatic explosions and the formation of gas emission craters. The subject of the research is cryogenic formations recorded in frozen rocks composing the gas emission craters discovered in northern Western Siberia. The authors provide a detailed examination of the cryogenic formations found in various elements of the craters, analyzing their structure, morphology, plastic, and brittle deformations. Special attention is given to the processes that could have led to the formation of certain cryogenic elements, such as ring structures, cellular ice, and fracture structures on the crater surfaces. Due to the insufficient study of many cryogenic processes recorded in the craters, analogies from other fields of technical and natural sciences were widely used. Currently, researchers are primarily focused on searching for hypothetical schemes linking the genesis of gas with the formation of gas emission craters. The authors of this work have shown that without considering the cryogenic factor, it is impossible to address the problem of pneumatic explosions in permafrost, even in the context of gas genesis. The main method used in this article is the analysis of scientific publications on the topic under consideration, as well as data from laboratory modeling conducted by the authors. The synthesis of the analyzed materials was carried out based on a geosystem approach. The novelty of the research lies in the justification of the cryogenic basis for the staged development of the gas dynamic geosystem in frozen rocks, which conditions the preparation for pneumatic explosions and the formation of gas emission craters. For the first time, four stages of development of the cryogenic gas dynamic geosystem in frozen rocks have been identified. The first stage is the initial formation of a gas-saturated zone with increased pressure of the subsurface gas, located at the base of the gas dynamic geosystem. The second stage is the formation of a transit zone for the redistribution of subsurface gas. The concluding stage is where the gas pressure at its upper part reaches values exceeding the strength of the overlying soils. The final stage of development of the cryogenic gas dynamic geosystem is the pneumatic explosion that forms the gas emission crater. The main conclusions of the conducted research are as follows: the processes preparing for the formation of gas emission craters are cryogenic. They are determined by the structural-textural features of frozen rocks, mass transfer processes, and phase transitions occurring within them, as well as their strength and deformation properties.