Fuzzy evaluation of the value of shares of the issuer companies on the stock market using the example of Exxon Mobil

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Abstract

The subject of the study is the task of determining a reliable valuation of the shares of stock market participants, stock investors, owners and purchasers of companies. The purpose of the work is to evaluate the shares of issuing companies on the stock market for various scenarios. The methodology of the research includes the application of methods of analysis of economic phenomena and processes related to the study of the development of issuing companies, as well as the assessment and forecasting of their economic activities. Fuzzy logic theory is used to model the development of issuing companies. The study of empirical data and identification of trends in the development of issuing companies is based on statistical processing of factual material. The methodology of fuzzy valuation of the shares of issuing companies has been developed, which includes databases of historical quotations and financial and economic indicators, as well as forecast fuzzy scenarios of their development. For the model forecast scenarios (basic and pessimistic), fuzzy estimates of the value of shares and investment indicators of the oil company Exxon Mobil are determined depending on the values of the time forecast stages of its development. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the use of fuzzy scenarios of the evolution of issuing companies, the fuzzy parameters of which make it possible to most adequately reflect the uncertainty of their forecast development. The presented method of fuzzy valuation of the shares of issuing companies may be in demand for practical application not only for stock market participants, owners and purchasers of companies, but also for potential ordinary investors. The results of the article can be used as a theoretical basis for further research in the field of fuzzy valuations of the shares of issuing companies.

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