Analyzing and Forecasting the Construction Volume in the Municipal Districts of the Republic of Mari El

Introduction. The development of the construction industry is an important indicator of the state of the economy of a region and the quality of life of its population. The conducted analysis of research works indicates a wide range of construction sector problems being investigated. At the same time, the studies are carried out with regard to the subjects of the Russian Federation in general, without detailed consideration of the territories within them. However, the level of economic development of districts can differ significantly, which has diverse impacts on the state of the construction industry in the region as a whole.

The purpose of the study is to analyze and forecast the volume of housing construction in the districts of the Republic of Mari El depending on the level of their welfare development.

Methods. The construction of models of contract work volumes in the regional municipal districts is based on the stepwise algorithm of regression analysis, which enables assessing the influence of a set of factorial features on the modeled indicator, both in their totality and for each factor individually. To develop forecasts of the housing construction volume, the algorithm of the exponential smoothing method has been used that enables the creation of accurate forecasts taking into account the presence of a trend and periodic fluctuations in the development of a phenomenon.

Results. The active development of the construction sector in the Republic of Mari El in recent years has led to a significant expansion of the housing sector and an increase in the number of industrial and civil facilities. Based on the analysis, the dynamics of the residential building construction in the municipal districts of the Republic has shown an upward trend over the past 16 years. According to the forecasts obtained, the largest volume of housing construction is expected in the Medvedevsky and Zvenigovsky municipal districts of the Republic and will reach 107.1 million square meters by 2025, which is explained, inter alia, by the immediate proximity of the Medvedevsky district to Yoshkar-Ola, the capital city of the Mari El Republic. In Volzhsky, Mari-Tureksky, Morkinsky and Sernursky districts, the housing commissioning will amount to 37.5 million square meters by 2025; in Gornomariysky, Kilemarsky, Kuzhenersky, Novotoryalsky and Yurinsky districts, construction of residential buildings will reach 21.7 million square meters by 2025. In Paranginsky and Sovetsky districts, the volume of housing construction will amount to 10.8 million square meters by 2025. The smallest volume of residential space commissioning is predicted for Orshansky district, where it will reach 6.3 million square meters by 2025. Conclusion. The forecasts obtained are indicative of the active development of the construction industry in the municipal districts of the Republic of Mari El. The housing construction volume is predicted to increase in all classification groups of districts.