Risk-based assessment of the potential epidemic hazard for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the enzootic Republic of Bashkortostan

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Abstract

Objective. Development of an algorithm for determining the potential epidemic hazard of enzootic hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

Materials and methods. Long-term data from the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being in the Republic of Bashkortostan on the incidence of HFRS, materials from the «State Reports of Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being in the Republic of Bashkortostan» and «Reviews and Forecasts of the Population of Small Mammals and Arthropods – Carriers and Transmitters of Natural Focal Diseases, the Epizootological and Epidemiological Situation in the Republic of Bashkortostan», as well as materials from the Republican Disinfection Center of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period 2010–2023 were analyzed and summarized.

Results. An algorithm for determining the potential epidemic hazard in an area enzootic for HFRS has been developed. This algorithm includes a set of indicators characterizing both the current state of epizootic potential and a retrospective assessment of the long-term dynamics of the HFRS epidemiological situation in the Republic of Bashkortostan, assigning them a scoring. It has been confirmed that the long-term dynamics of HFRS incidence in the Republic of Bashkortostan are closely related to the abundance and infection rates of the main vector of Puumala orthohantavirus — the bank vole. The correlation coefficient between the relative number of infected bank voles and HFRS incidence rates from 2010 to 2023 is 0.89. The correlation coefficient between the score assessment of the potential epidemic hazard in the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan and the incidence of HFRS from 2010 to 2023 was 0.68.

Conclusion. The developed algorithm is universal and enables quantitative determination of the potential epidemic hazard in administrative territories within the Puumala orthohantavirus distribution boundaries.

About the authors

Pavel A. Mochalkin

Republican Disinfection Center; Bashkir State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: marketing@dez-ufa.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7415-1299

МD, Chief Physician, Head, Department of Hygiene

Russian Federation, Ufa; Ufa

Vasily G. Akimkin

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Email: vgakimkin@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8139-0247

Academician of the Russian Academy, МD, Professor, Director

Russian Federation, Moscow

Anastasiya K. Blynskaya

Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Email: popova_ak@02.rospotrebnadzor.ru

Expert Specialist, Department of Epidemiological Surveillance and Sanitary Protection of the Territory

Russian Federation, Ufa

Nikolay V. Popov

Russian Anti-Plague Institute «Microbe», Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Email: Popovnv47@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4099-9261

ВD, Professor, Chief Researcher, Laboratory of Epizootological Monitoring

Russian Federation, Saratov

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