A Strategic Management Model for Restructuring the Technological Core of an Economy

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This paper considers the multi-sector model of the technological core of an economy, mathematical methods for its analysis, and procedures for calculating an indicative plan to restructure the core. The productivity of this core is proposed as a formalized criterion (indicator) for the effectiveness of structural innovations. The following optimization problem is stated: find a balanced state maximizing productivity by planned changes in the output and price indices. An equivalent transformation method is developed for the model considering the achieved values of the indicators. Several propositions concerning the properties of equilibrium and balanced states are proved. As a result, a multistage procedure is constructed to calculate the trajectory bringing the economic system closer to a balanced state. The multi-sector model is analyzed to compare the uncontrolled and controlled modes of development. The uncontrolled mode simulates the state of a market economy: no centralized management of the economy, sustainability, and relatively low GDP growth rates. The controlled mode involves the strategic planning methodology. As shown below, due to indicative strategic planning, the productivity of Russia’s economy can significantly increase even at the first plan implementation stages. The proposed indicative planning methodology is mathematically justified. Numerical examples of its implementation on real statistical data are given. According to the paper’s results, centralized planning institutions should be established for developing the technological infrastructure of Russia’s economy. Such institutions are of current importance due to the international economic and political situation.

Sobre autores

V. Gusev

Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: gusvbr@ipu.ru
Moscow, Russia

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