Scenario-Cognitive Modeling of Complex Systems Based on Event-Driven Identification of Factor Dynamics
- Authors: Chernov I.V1
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Affiliations:
- Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
- Issue: No 3 (2023)
- Pages: 65-76
- Section: Control in Social and Economic Systems
- URL: https://ogarev-online.ru/1819-3161/article/view/286632
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.25728/pu.2023.3.5
- ID: 286632
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Abstract
This paper is devoted to methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of scenario analysis and modeling of development processes in socio-economic systems. The corresponding results can be used in management decision support systems for proactive evaluation of their effectiveness. Several limitations of the traditional approach to scenario-cognitive modeling are considered; due to these limitations, the resulting scenario neglects key events directly affecting the assessment of the current situation and decision-making. A novel approach is proposed to identify and analyze the dynamics of factor values when studying the model as well as to form additional scenario-event relationships between the factors in order to increase the adequacy of the model to the situation. A computational algorithm is developed to analyze the dynamics of factor values of the model. This algorithm is implemented and tested within the program-analytical complex of scenario modeling. Finally, an example of using the algorithm is given.
About the authors
I. V Chernov
Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: ichernov@gmail.com
Moscow, Russia
References
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