Modelling excess mortality during the pandemic period among federal districts of the Russian Federation
- Authors: Makhankova I.V.1, Druzhinin P.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Institute of Economics of Karelian Research Centre of RAS
- Issue: No 113 (2025)
- Pages: 273-290
- Section: Control of social-economic systems
- URL: https://ogarev-online.ru/1819-2440/article/view/289715
- ID: 289715
Cite item
Abstract
The pandemic has affected all spheres of life in all regions of the Russian Federation and has had an impact on the temporary increase in mortality in Russia. The calculations show that the pandemic occurred in two waves, each consisting of three parts, with peaks of high excess mortality. The purpose of this article is to use mathematical models to calculate excess mortality by federal districts, taking into account data from the latest all-Russian population census, and to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality in Russia. When calculating excess mortality, the first method took into account mortality in the previous period (2019), the second method is based on calculating the downward trend in mortality in 2019 compared to 2018, the third combined statistical method SARIMAX takes into account mortality trends since 2015. The result of the modeling is a quantitative assessment of excess mortality in Russia during the pandemic period. The pandemic can explain 57% of excess deaths in 2020-2021. A mortality forecast for 2023 has been compiled in the context of federal districts. The results can be taken into account when developing forecasts for the socio-economic development of Russia for the long term in terms of health protection of the population.
Keywords
About the authors
Irina Vladimirovna Makhankova
Institute of Economics of Karelian Research Centre of RAS
Email: makhankova@petrsu.ru
Petrozavodsk
Pavel Vasil'evich Druzhinin
Institute of Economics of Karelian Research Centre of RAS
Email: pdruzhinin@mail.ru
Petrozavodsk
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