The utilization of virtual structures in the formation of scenario-cognitive models based on the utilization of expert knowledge

This study is dedicated to investigating the problem of enhancing the adequacy of scenario-cognitive models based on expert knowledge within a limited set of factors. One of the most important tasks in the formation of a scenario-cognitive model based on expert knowledge is the problem of taking into account the total influence of the external environment, i.e., those factors that remain outside the structure of the model, but influence the achievement of the required accuracy of modeling results. When constructing scenario-cognitive models of complex socio-economic and political systems, it is usually necessary to apply a significant simplification, which consists in concluding all the diversity of factors and connections between them in a relatively simple and understandable model. The quality of a model built on the basis of combining expert data should be determined by the adequacy of the image of a real object or situation. Consequently, when forming models using expert knowledge, it is also necessary to “expertly close” the structure of the model with some virtual substructures that are capable of generating certain signals reflecting the influence of the external environment. Typical signals simulating the influences of the external environment are presented. Typical structures of expert identification of the impact of the external environment on scenario model factors are introduced. An overall pattern of the scenario-cognitive model is presented, which is formed based on expert knowledge and consists of a multitude of actual factors of a complex system and proxy structures.

scenario-cognitive modeling, adequacy, scenario model, scenario analysis, external environment, proxy factors