Fertility of the population of Russian regions in the late 20th and early 21st centuries: trends, features and consequences

The collapse of the USSR and the transformation of many spheres of socio-economic life in one way or another influenced the demographic processes in Russia. But, unlike migration and mortality, the level and dynamics of fertility were significantly influenced by purely demographic factors — two demographic waves that arose as a result of the decline in fertility in 1942–1944, and as a result of the active demographic policy in the 1980s. In the 1990s there was a significant reduction in the main parameters determining both absolute and relative fertility rates, as well as age-specific fertility rates, which became the main causes of the decline in fertility in the 1990s. The article shows that the reduction of total fertility rates (TFR) was going with different intensity in different regions of Russia. Analysis of the changes shows that the more significant TFR was in 1990, the more it decreased by the end of the 1990s. Conversely, the lower the indicators in regions, the more insignificantly their values changed. It was found that in 1990 3/4 of all regions of the country had TFR values exceeding 1.8, then by 1999, as a result of the widespread reduction, their bulk moved to the minimum values. There is given a detailed analysis of the regional structure of TFR, shown a reduction of the indicators in the 1990s and their increase in the early 21st century, relationship of TFR rates with the size of reduction or increase. In the regions of the central part of Russia, there was a relatively greater reduction in TFR against the national average. This affected the number of births in the regions of indigenous Russia, and their share in the Russian population decreased. Another negative phenomenon was reduction of TFR in the Eastern regions of the country, especially in the Far East, which also could not but affect Russia’s national interests.

fertility, demographic wave, total fertility rate, mortality, age-specific fertility rates, demographic policy