Two Years after the Tigray Conflict: Political Consequences for Ethiopia

The article focuses on the Tigray conflict – a major armed conflict that took place in 2018–2020 in the northern regions of Ethiopia. This war led to considerable changes within the Ethiopian society and, primarily, within the balance of power among political elites. Thus, the authors provide for an analysis which includes three main aspects: 1) the general context which had forestalled the events; 2) the dynamics of the conflict; 3) the political consequences of the conflict. As a result, the article provides for a range of conclusions which creates an integral understanding of the nature and dynamics of the conflict. Generally, the federal government also considered the after-war political realities: it didn’t use the opportunity to completely destroy its enemies and used the Pretoria agreements as the tool to create a new coalition. Thus, the Tigray conflict failed to become a crucial milestone in the political life of Ethiopia. Actually, this conflict only led to the defeat of a political elite fraction and invoked another conflict of the Centre with its former allies – Amhara nationalists. Such a development logically illustrates Abiy Ahmed’s policy towards state centralization and his struggle against alternative centers of power.

the Tigray conflict, Ethiopia, the Pretoria agreements, Fano, TPLF