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Somalia: Another Round of Tension
- Authors: Khairullin T.R.1,2,3, Korotayev A.V.1,4
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Affiliations:
- Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
- Patrice Lumumba RUDN University
- Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
- HSE University
- Issue: No 3 (2025)
- Pages: 14-21
- Section: Politics, economics
- URL: https://ogarev-online.ru/0321-5075/article/view/286339
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0321507525030023
- ID: 286339
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Abstract
The article examines the recent instability in Somalia caused by conflicts amid territorial and economic disputes over Somali ports, as well as contradictions between federal and regional authorities. It shows that the agreement reached in early 2024 between Ethiopia and Somaliland led to a serious round of tensions that threatened to escalate into a regional conflict. The active actions of the federal government in Mogadishu, which did not recognize the treaty, escalated the situation to the point that a number of regional actors intervened in the conflict. As a result, the diplomatic efforts of Turkey, which has friendly relations with both sides, led to the conclusion of peace agreements between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, which automatically reduced tensions. Another episode was the contradictions within the Somali federal states related to the presidential elections that were held in the state of Jubaland at the end of 2024. The federal government in Mogadishu did not recognize the election results and sent troops to restore order and prevent the conflict from escalating. It turned out that the conflict has deeper roots, which lie (among other points) in the political figure of the re-elected president of Jubaland, his ties with the Kenyan and Ethiopian authorities, the activities of radical Islamist groups, as well as clan and tribal contradictions.
Keywords
About the authors
Timur R. Khairullin
Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Patrice Lumumba RUDN University; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Email: jumglaw16@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5418-2792
PhD (Political Science), Senior Researcher, Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies; Associated Professor, Department of Oriental and African Studies; Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Sciences Moscow, Russia; Moscow, Russia; Moscow, Russia
Andrey V. Korotayev
Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; HSE University
Email: akorotayev@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3014-2037
Dr.Sc. (History), Professor, Director; Principal Researcher Moscow, Russia; Moscow, Russia
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