Geoeconomic Turn: Policy Priorities of the Next EU Commission

The next institutional cycle of the EU begins in a period of unprecedented uncertainty in the global economy and large-scale problems in the European economic space. The author explores possible economic and political directions in the activities of the new composition of the European Commission. A hypothesis is that the main priority will be to ensure the competitiveness of the European space, the development of new regulatory documents of a geo-economic nature and their implementation. An assessment of the genesis of the new economic and political stage with an analysis of the main regulatory decisions is presented. The article also focuses on economic initiatives for 2023-early 2024 to ensure economic security and antisubsidy regulation. These decisions are very significant as they form a drift from the “geopolitical” to the “geo-economic” role of the Commission. Further, the priorities of the economic policy of the new European Commission are consisted of three components: ensuring raw material security, maximising the competitiveness of the EU, protecting the adopted climate goals with partnership with the widest possible range of countries. The analysis demonstrated a significant weakening of the EU's position in the world economy, associated with a lag in productivity. The author concludes that the main risks of the “geoeconomic turn” are in the political sphere. Its actors may not be able to overcome numerous obstacles to implement the new industrial course, associated with the need to take into account the heterogeneous impact of various industries on the EU economy. The approaches of the article can be valuiable for studying other countries and regions in which economic policy integrates the search for efficiency in responses to external challenges.

European Union, European Commission, economic security, competitiveness, green deal, industrial policy, strategic autonomy, geoeconomic turn, climate goals