Assessment of Russia’s production capacity for natural refrigerants in the context of the Kigali Amendment implementation: a case of transport refrigeration equipment

In compliance with the Russian Federation’s obligations under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol—mandating a phasedown of hydrofluorocarbon consumption—the transition to natural refrigerants has become a strategic priority. This study quantitatively assesses the alignment between domestic production capacity of natural refrigerants—propane (R290) and propylene (R1270)—and actual/prospective demand in the transport refrigeration sector. Statistical analysis of data from 2020 to 2023 reveals that production capacity at JSC “NPP Sintez” fully satisfies R290 demand but falls short of R1270 requirements. Notably, even in this relatively low-refrigerant-intensity segment, a supply gap for certain natural alternatives is evident—highlighting the urgent need for scaling up domestic manufacturing infrastructure. The findings underscore that a successful HFC phase-down in Russia necessitates not only equipment redesign and retrofitting but also targeted industrial policy to expand high-purity natural refrigerant production. This case study provides empirical grounding for evidence-based planning of the national refrigeration sector’s decarbonization pathway.