Tectonophysical Zoning of Active Faults in Altai-Western Sayan Region: Identification of Locations for Preparation of Strong Earthquakes

Tectonophysical zoning of active faults according to the level of Coulomb stresses for Alati-Western Sayan region has been performed. The source of stress data is the mechanisms of earthquake foci and a modified algorithm for the method of cataclastic analysis of discontinuous displacements, implemented in the new computer program STRESSseism_v.3.0. Based on the results of stress reconstruction, the kinematic types of regional faults and the angles of their immersion in the upper crust (5-15 km) have been clarified. Five zones have been identified with fault systems having a high level of Coulomb stresses with the length of dangerous fault sections exceeding 50-70 km. The obtained result is considered as a deterministic long-term forecast of the preparation zones for strong earthquakes with magnitudes M >= 6.5-7.0 and, possibly, with higher magnitudes.