Theoretical evaluation of the parameters of glucose metabolism on the basis of continuous glycemia monitoring data using mathematical modeling

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to construct a mathematical model that takes the main physiological parameters of blood-glucose regulation into account, in order to identify these parameters for an individual patient according to continuous glucose-monitoring data. The constructed mathematical model consists of six ordinary differential equations that describe the dynamics of changes in glucose concentrations, as well as insulin and anti-insulin factors in the blood. Estimation of the parameters of the equations was performed using an evolutionary programming method. The model predictions were fitted to the continuous glucosemonitoring data. As a result of the identification of the model parameters for two patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, the estimated insulin secretion was close to zero and the estimated glucose utilization and insulin clearance were increased in comparison with the data for healthy donors. Here, we present a personalized model of the regulation of blood glucose, which can be used to predict the results of continuous glucose monitoring depending on modification of the prescribed glucose-lowering therapy. This approach can significantly reduce the number of iterations of the selection of medical hypoglycemic therapy and therefore increase the effectiveness of treatment according to glucose-monitoring data.