Water flow of the largest Russian rivers in modern and scenario global warming

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The results of a comparative study of the changes in the flow of the large rivers of the Russian Plain (Volga, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Neva rivers), Siberia (Ob, Irtysh, Yenisei, Angara, Lena, Vilyui rivers) and the Far East (Amur River) under conditions of modern global warming and during the period of scenario anthropogenic climate changes in the 21st century are presented. It is based on a comparison of the annual and seasonal river runoff of the reference period and the period of modern global warming; calculations based on the monthly water balance model developed at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; estimates of changes in annual river flow obtained by the method of the average long-term annual water balance and atmospheric precipitation and evaporation data calculated within the framework of the CMIP5 program on an ensemble of global climate models for periods of modern and scenario global warming. During the period of modern global warming, compared with the previous base period, an increase in annual runoff and runoff of the main hydrological seasons was observed on the Volga, Kama, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Irtysh, Yenisei, Angara, Lena and Vilyui rivers, especially noticeable in winter, as well as in summer-autumn hydrological seasons. Whereas, on the Don, along with the most significant of all the rivers considered, the relative increase in winter runoff, as well as a noticeable increase in summer-autumn runoff, the greatest decrease in snowmelt flood runoff, as well as annual runoff, was revealed. The coincidence of the sign of changes in the annual runoff of the Volga, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena and Vilyui rivers during the period of modern global warming, calculated from observations and the equation of water balance using atmospheric precipitation and evaporation data obtained by averaging the results of calculations on the ensemble of global climate models of the CMIP5 program, has been established. Relative scenario changes in the annual runoff of the Volga, Neva, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Vilyui, Kolyma and Amur rivers in comparison with the runoff of the base period correlate quite closely with the corresponding changes in annual atmospheric precipitation amounts, and scenario changes in total evaporation with changes in annual air temperature.

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Sobre autores

A. Georgiadi

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: georgiadi@igras.ru
Rússia, Moscow

I. Milyukova

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: georgiadi@igras.ru
Rússia, Moscow

O. Borodin

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: georgiadi@igras.ru
Rússia, Moscow; Moscow

E. Barabanova

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: georgiadi@igras.ru
Rússia, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Relative changes (∆, %) in flood (F), summer-autumn (SA), winter (W) and annual (A) runoff during the period of modern global warming (since 1981) compared to the runoff of the base period (1930–40s – 1980), calculated based on long-term runoff data, from which anthropogenic changes are excluded. Information on the cross-sections is given in Table 1

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3. Fig. 2. Relative changes in annual runoff (∆, %) during the period of modern global warming compared to the runoff of the base period, calculated using the water balance equation and data on atmospheric precipitation and air temperature averaged over the ensemble of global climate models of the CMIP5 program (1), and using long-term runoff data with anthropogenic changes excluded (2).

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4. Fig. 3. Relative changes (∆, %) in annual runoff (A), flood runoff (F), summer-autumn (SA) and winter (W) runoff of the Volga (a), Don (b) and Vilyuy (c): during the period of modern global warming compared to the baseline period runoff calculated based on long-term runoff data with anthropogenic changes excluded (1), during the scenario warming period in 2010–2039 – based on the monthly water balance model and scenario data on precipitation and air temperature averaged based on data from the ensemble of global climate models of the CMIP5 program for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period runoff of 1931–1980 (2, 3), during the scenario warming period of 2035–2065 – based on the monthly water balance model and scenario data on precipitation and air temperature averaged over the data from the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period runoff of 1931–1980 (2, 3), and during the scenario warming period of 2035–2065. – compared with the flow of the base period 1971–2000 (4). More detailed information is in the text.

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5. Fig. 4. Scenario changes (∆, %) in annual precipitation (1), annual evaporation (2), annual air temperature, ∆, C (3), annual runoff during the scenario warming period 2040–2069 in comparison with the baseline runoff (4) for scenarios RCP2.6 (a) and RCP8.5 (b).

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6. Fig. 5. Regression relationships between the relative (%) scenario changes obtained for the considered large river basins based on the data of the ensemble of global climate models under the RCP8.5 climate scenario of the CMIP5 program: (a) annual runoff and annual atmospheric precipitation for the period 2040–2069; (b) annual evaporation and annual air temperature for the period 2040–2069; (c) annual runoff calculated by the authors using the annual water balance equation for the period 2040–2069 (∆R2) and obtained in (Georgievskiy, Golovanov, 2019) for the period 2041–2060, based on calculations on the ensemble of global climate models (∆R1).

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