Перспективы развития возобновляемой энергетики в Великобритании, Турции и Нигерии

Обложка

Цитировать

Полный текст

Аннотация

Связь потребления возобновляемой энергии с экономическим ростом — актуальный предмет исследований, однако выводы о ее характере и направленности неоднозначны. В статье на репрезентативной выборке стран — Великобритании, Турции и Нигерии — анализируется влияние темпов экономического прогресса и стоимости электричества на распространение возобновляемой энергетики, составлен прогноз ее развития до 2030 г.В долгосрочной перспективе интенсивность пользования возобновляемыми энергоресурсами будет определяться уровнем доходов населения и ценами на электроэнергию. Решающую роль в этом процессе сыграют политические инициативы, направленные на формирование новых энергетических рынков и регулирующих стандартов. Их эффектами станут не только укрепление энергетической и экологической безопасности, но и стабильный экономический рост.

Об авторах

Нуркан Килинч-Ата

Университет Стирлинга

Email: nurcankilinc@yahoo.com
Stirling FK9 4LA, UK

Список литературы

  1. Abbott A.J., De Vita G. (2003) Another Piece in the Feldstein - Horioka Puzzle // Scottish Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 50. № 1. P. 68-89.
  2. Akaike H. (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification // IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. Vol. 19. № 6. P. 716-723. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
  3. Akinlo A.E. (2008) Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 30. № 5. P. 2391-2400.
  4. Akinlo A.E. (2009) Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from cointegration and co-feature analysis // Journal of Policy Modelling. Vol. 31. № 5. P. 681-693.
  5. Apergis N., Payne J.E. (2010) Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries // Energy Policy. Vol. 38. P. 656-660.
  6. Apergis N., Payne J.E. (2014) Renewable energy, output, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuel prices in Central America: Evidence from a nonlinear panel smooth transition vector error correction model // Energy Economics. Vol. 42. P. 226-232.
  7. Aqeel A., Butt M.S. (2001) The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan // Asia-Pacific Development Journal. Vol. 8. № 2. P. 101-110.
  8. Aziz M.I.A., Dahalan J. (2015) Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Activities in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel VAR Approach // Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics. Vol. 8. № 16. P. 101-120.
  9. Belke A., Dobnik F., Dreger C. (2011) Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship // Energy Economics. Vol. 33. № 5. P. 782-789.
  10. Bowden N., Payne J.E. (2010) Sectoral analysis of the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real output in the US // Energy Sources. Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. Vol. 5. № 4. P. 400-408.
  11. Bretschenger L. (2010) Energy Prices, Growth, and the Channels in Between: Theory and Evidence. Economics Working Paper Series. Zurich: ETH Zurich.
  12. Brooks C. (2008) Introductory econometrics for finance (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  13. Bruns S.B., Gross C. (2013) What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis // Energy Economics. Vol. 40. P. 753-759.
  14. Chiou-Wei S.Z., Chen C.F., Zhu Z. (2008) Economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality // Energy Economics. Vol. 30. № 6. P. 3063-3076.
  15. Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root // Econometrica. Vol. 49. № 4. P. 1057-1072.
  16. Ebohon O.J. (1996) Energy, economic growth, and causality in developing countries // Energy Policy. Vol. 24. № 5. P. 447-453.
  17. Edenhofer O., Hirth L., Knopf B., Pahle M., Schlömer S., Schmid E., Ueckerdt F. (2013) On the economics of renewable energy sources // Energy Economics. Vol. 40. № S1. P. S12-S23.
  18. Enders W. (1995) Applied econometric time series (2nd ed.). London: John Wiley&Sons Inc.
  19. Ewing B.T., Sari R., Soytas U. (2007) Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States // Energy Policy. Vol. 35. № 2. P. 1274-1281.
  20. Giles D. (2011) VAR or VECM When Testing for Granger Causality? Режим доступа:http://davegiles.blogspot.com.tr/2011/10/var-or-vecm-when-testing-for-granger.html, дата обращения 25.05.2015.
  21. Granger C.W.J. (1980) Testing for causality: A personal viewpoint // Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Vol. 2. P. 329-352. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(80)90069-X
  22. Gross C. (2012) Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S. - A multivariate sectoral analysis // Energy Economics. Vol. 34. № 2. P. 489-499.
  23. Halicioglu F. (2009) An econometric study of CO2-emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey // Energy Policy. Vol. 37. № 3. P. 1156-1164.
  24. Hannan E.J., Quinn B.G. (1979) The Determination of the order of an autoregression // Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. Vol. 41. P. 190-195.
  25. Hocaoglu F.O., Karanfil F. (2013) A time series-based approach for renewable energy modelling // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Vol. 28. P. 204-214.
  26. Huang B.N., Hwang M.J., Yang C.W. (2008) Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach // Ecological Economics. Vol. 67. № 1. P. 41-54.
  27. Humphrey W.S., Stanislaw J. (1979) Economic growth and energy consumption in the UK, 1700-1975 // Energy Policy. Vol. 7. № 1. P. 29-42.
  28. IRENA (2018a) Renewable energy auctions: Cases from Sub-Saharan Africa. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency.
  29. IRENA (2018b) Renewable capacity statistics 2018. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency.
  30. Ighodaro C.A. (2010) Co-integration and causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Further empirical evidence for Nigeria // Journal of Business Economics and Management. Vol. 11. № 1. P. 97-111.
  31. Inglesi-Lotz R. (2013) The Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption to Economic Welfare: A Panel Data Application. Department of Economics Working Paper Series 15, March. Pretoria: University of Pretoria.
  32. Johnstone N., Haščič I., Popp D. (2010) Renewable energy policies and technological innovation: Evidence based on patent counts // Environmental and Resource Economics. Vol. 45. № 1. P. 133-155.
  33. Kaygusuz K., Yuksek O., Sari A. (2007) Renewable energy sources in the European Union: Markets and capacity // Energy Sources. Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. Vol. 2. № 1. P. 19-29.
  34. Kireyev A. (2000) Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel VAR Approach. IMF Working Paper, Middle Eastern Department, WP/00/54. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  35. Lee C.C., Chien M.S. (2010) Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G7 countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 32. № 3. P. 564-581.
  36. Lee C.C., Chiu Y.B. (2011) Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 33. № 2. P. 236-248.
  37. Marques C.A., Fuinhas J.A. (2011) Do energy efficiency measures promote the use of renewable sources? // Environmental Science & Policy. Vol. 15. № 3. P. 471-481.
  38. Melikoglu M. (2013) Vision 2023: Feasibility analysis of Turkey's renewable energy projection // Renewable Energy. Vol. 50. Issue C. P. 570-575.
  39. Menegaki A.N. (2011) Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis // Energy Economics. Vol. 33. № 2. P. 257-263.
  40. Menyah K., Wolde-Rufael Y. (2010) CO2 emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in the US // Energy Policy. Vol. 38. № 6. P. 2911-2915.
  41. Mohammadi H., Parvaresh S. (2014) Energy consumption and output: Evidence from a panel of 14 oil-exporting countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 41. P. 41-46.
  42. Narayan P.K., Prasad A. (2008) Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries // Energy Policy. Vol. 36. № 2. P. 910-918.
  43. Ng S., Perron P. (2001) Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power // Econometrica. Vol. 69. № 6. P. 1519-1554.
  44. Ocal O., Aslan A. (2013) Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in Turkey // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Vol. 28. P. 494-499.
  45. Odhiambo N.M. (2010) Energy consumption, prices, and economic growth in three SSA countries: A comparative study // Energy Policy. Vol. 38. № 5. P. 2463-2469.
  46. Ohler A., Fetters I. (2014) The causal relationship between renewable electricity generation and GDP growth: A study of energy sources // Energy Economics. Vol. 43. Issue C. P. 125-139.
  47. Ozturk I., Acaravci A. (2013) The long run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey // Energy Economics. Vol. 36. Issue C. P. 262-267.
  48. Pao H.T., Fu H.C. (2013) Renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and economic growth in Brazil // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Vol. 25. P. 381-392.
  49. Payne J.E. (2010) Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth // Journal of Economic Studies. Vol. 37. № 1. P. 53-95.
  50. Payne J.E. (2011) On biomass energy consumption and real output in the US // Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. Vol. 6. № 1. P. 47-52.
  51. Payne J.E., Taylor J.P. (2010) Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the US: An empirical note // Energy Sources. Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. Vol. 5. № 3. P. 301-307.
  52. Perron P. (1988) Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Further evidence from a new approach // Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Vol. 12. № 2. P. 297-332.
  53. Phillips P.C., Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression // Biometrika. Vol. 75. № 2. P. 335-346.
  54. Phillips P.C.B. (1998) Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotic in nonstationary VARs // Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 83. P. 21-56.
  55. REN21 (2018) Renewables 2018 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat.
  56. Sadorsky P. (2009a) Renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and oil prices in the G7 countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 31. № 3. P. 456-462.
  57. Sadorsky P. (2009b) Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies // Energy Policy. Vol. 37. № 10. P. 4021-4028.
  58. Sadorsky P. (2011) Modelling renewable energy consumption for a greener global economy // Planet Earth 2011 - Global Warming Challenges and Opportunities for Policy and Practice / Ed. E. Carayannis. Rijeka, Shanghai: InTech. P. 507-524.
  59. Salim R.A., Rafiq S. (2012) Why do some emerging economies proactively accelerate the adoption of renewable energy? // Energy Economics. Vol. 34. № 4. P. 1051-1057.
  60. Schwarz G.E. (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model // Annals of Statistics. Vol. 6. № 2. P. 461-464. , MR 0468014. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136
  61. Silva S., Soares I., Pinho C. (2012) The impact of renewable energy sources on economic growth and CO2 emissions - a SVAR approach // European Research Studies. Vol. 15 (Special Issue on Energy). P. 132-144.
  62. Soytas U., Sari R. (2009) Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member // Ecological Economics. Vol. 68. № 6. P. 1667-1675.
  63. Taylor J.W. (2010) Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting // European Journal of Operational Research. Vol. 204. P. 139-152.
  64. Tiwari A.K. (2011) A structural VAR analysis of renewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions: Evidence from India // Economics Bulletin. Vol. 31. № 2. P. 1793-1806.
  65. Tugcu C.T., Ozturk I., Aslan A. (2012) Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth relationship revisited: Evidence from G7 countries // Energy Economics. Vol. 34. № 6. P. 1942-1950.
  66. Vaona A. (2012) Granger non-causality tests between (non) renewable energy consumption and output in Italy since 1861: The (ir)relevance of structural breaks // Energy Policy. Vol. 45. P. 226-236.
  67. Ward D.J., Inderwildi O.R. (2013) Global and local impacts of UK renewable energy policy // Energy Environment Science. Vol. 6. P. 18-24.
  68. World Bank (2013) World Development Indicators 2013. Режим доступа:http://data.worldbank.org/, дата обращения 10.10.2014.
  69. Yildirim E., Sarac S., Aslan A. (2012) Energy consumption and economic growth in the USA: Evidence from renewable energy // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Vol. 16. № 9. P. 6770-6774.
  70. Yusuf S.A. (2014) Impact of energy consumption and environmental degradation on economic growth in Nigeria. MPRA Paper 55529. Munchen: University of Munchen.

Дополнительные файлы

Доп. файлы
Действие
1. JATS XML
Скачать

Согласие на обработку персональных данных

 

Используя сайт https://journals.rcsi.science, я (далее – «Пользователь» или «Субъект персональных данных») даю согласие на обработку персональных данных на этом сайте (текст Согласия) и на обработку персональных данных с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика» (текст Согласия).