Первые эффекты пандемии для деловой активности в Чехии

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Кризисы подрывают деловую активность в любой стране. Но если одним предпринимателям они несут исключительно убытки и риски закрытия бизнеса, то другим открывают возможность начать все заново. На примере пандемии COVID-19 анализируется влияние кризиса на предпринимательскую деятельность в Чехии с опорой на официальные сведения о бизнес-демографии в 77 административных районах страны за 2008–2020 гг. Статистические данные позволяют оценить краткосрочные последствия пандемии спустя год после ее начала. Результаты панельных регрессионных моделей и плацебо-тестов, сравнивающих прогнозные и фактические уровни регистрации новых и ликвидации существующих фирм по состоянию на конец 2020 г., не выявили значительной негативной динамики. Более того, по сравнению с 2019 г. национальная предпринимательская активность даже выросла. Впрочем, полученные данные следует интерпретировать с осторожностью, поскольку развитие чешского бизнеса зависит от множества факторов, в частности предшествующего периода экономического роста, итогов государственной политики поддержки предприятий, включая малые и средние, а также от финансовой помощи их владельцам. Внимания заслуживают также долгосрочные, в том числе структурные, по­следствия пандемии для бизнес-демографии и динамика банкротств в наиболее пострадавших отраслях (туризм, сфера гостеприимства, культура и спорт) в сравнении с секторами, более приспособленными к работе в онлайн-среде.

Об авторах

Онджей Двулеты

Пражский университет экономики и бизнеса

Автор, ответственный за переписку.
Email: ondrej.dvoulety@vse.cz
W. Churchill Sq. 4, 130 67 Prague 3, the Czech Republic

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