Modeling of Environmental-Economic Indicators of Regional Development

Resumo

One of the current topical problems is the prediction of climate change and mitigation of its consequences. All-sided analysis of ecological, economic, and social aspects of climate issues relies on interdisciplinary assessment models. This article adapts the MERGE optimization model to the current state of the world economy and introduces into the model a new component that implements a simplified procedure of “green” GDP calculation (“green” GDP, or GGDP, provides information about the efficiency of use of environmental resources). The objective of our numerical simulations is to tests the consequences of Russia’s hypothetical participation in the program for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to analyze the environmental indicators of Russia’s GDP. The input data are mainly provided by the project of scenario conditions and main macroeconomic parameters for the forecasting of socio-economic development in Russia in the near future implemented by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The calculations reveal the existence of reserves for Russia’s “painless” participation in environment-preserving initiatives that call for not exceeding the 1990 emission level in 2020–2025. At the same time, increasing the environmental efficiency of Russia’s GDP is a relevant task that requires immediate attention.