New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century


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New estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are obtained based on calculations with the current generation of global climate models under moderate anthropogenic impacts in the 21st century. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, it was analyzed whether or not the present climate models can simulate both the average conditions of sea ice and their interannual variation and tendencies to change in the Arctic basin, in particular on the NSR, as compared to the satellite data for recent decades.

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I. Mokhov

Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: mokhov@ifaran.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Pyzhevsky per. 3, Moscow, 119017

V. Khon

Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Email: mokhov@ifaran.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Pyzhevsky per. 3, Moscow, 119017

M. Prokof’eva

Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Email: mokhov@ifaran.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Pyzhevsky per. 3, Moscow, 119017

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