Retrospective Simulation of an Extreme Flood on the Oka River at the City of Ryazan and Impact Assessment of Urban and Transport Infrastructure

Resumo

Numerical modeling of flow dynamics of rivers with comprehensive channel patterns and wide floodplains during high water stage is considered to be one of the most effective methods for implementing both research and civil-engineering projects. However, realistic results of simulations can be obtained only if the model has been calibrated and validated against field observations and remote sensing data. This approach is realized for a 2D hydrodynamic model of the Oka River at the city of Ryazan (central European Russia). The Oka has a meandering channel and a wide floodplain with a complicated distributary network. The feasibility of allocating new residential quarters and infrastructure facilities on artificial “islands” on the floodplain was studied using STREAM_2D software package. Because of a significant decrease in the maximum runoff of the Oka in the recent decades, the simulations were made for the extreme spring snowmelt flood of 1970 for various scenarios of floodplain development in the past, present, and future.